Charting a course for relations with the Middle Kingdom

The victory of pro-independence candidate Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) in Taiwan's presidential election is almost certain to create additional strains between Washington and Beijing. US-Chinese relations had already become increasingly wary even before the election. Just two years ago, both governments spoke of a "strategic partnership" and sought ways to enhance already substantial economic and political ties. The bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, the release of the Cox report alleging systematic nuclear espionage by the PRC, and angry Chinese reactions to both developments, however, have produced a new round of tensions.

So, too, has the publication China's White Paper and its expanded threat to use force against Taiwan to regain the "renegade province." On the positive side, China's probable accession to the WTO, followed by Taiwan's inclusion, offers hope that future US-Chinese relations will improve.

Friend or foe

Is China a rising colossus that intends to bully its neighbors and dominate Asia? Should Washington adopt a more hard-line policy toward the PRC on trade, human rights, and national security issues? Or is China a country that has already moved far along the road to a market economy and a more open society and is committed to being a stabilizing, cooperative power? Those are the questions that US policymakers must examine as they consider both the short- and long-term prospects for the evolution of a peaceful and prosperous "new China" despite the background of 50 years of communist rule.

The dark side of the Chinese communist state is disturbing and must not be ignored. But that unsavory record should not be allowed to hide the progress that the Chinese people have made since economic reforms began in 1978. The expansion of markets relative to state planning has given millions of people new opportunities and has substantially raised living standards. China's leaders have reluctantly accepted economic competition while trying to maintain their monopoly of political power. But as people have acquired greater economic freedom, they have also sought greater personal freedom. The dilemma for the Chinese Communist Party is how to grow the productive nonstate sector and at the same time prevent an erosion of the party's power as market participants demand greater civil liberties and a meaningful political voice.

The US and other countries are betting that China's accession to the WTO will make China a more open society and eventually lead to democratic rule as well as a more stable and peaceful international policy by Beijing. However, while free trade is necessary for peace, it is not sufficient. The Communist Party may be willing to sacrifice substantial gains from trade in order to protect its power and privilege and sources of investment capital. Witness, for example, the latest threats against Taiwan, one of China's major trading partners.

The challenge for the US is to exploit opportunities for further gains from trade while moving closer toward a constructive partnership with the PRC -- but at the same time protect vital US interests. Unfortunately, the US policy debate thus far has been largely a contest between the Clinton administration's muddled and inconsistent approach and the extremely confrontational approach advocated by many conservatives. The latter strategy risks creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of China's becoming an enemy. Indeed, a growing chorus of voices in Congress and the US foreign policy community argues that the PRC is a belligerent dictatorship and an implacable future enemy of the US.