Soong's strong showing may also carry with it advantages for the "New KMT" in 2004. If his newly-founded party turns out to be viable, and it most likely will, we can expect more split votes as his popularity and organizational ability siphon support from the two major parties. In such a tri-party environment, a polished candidate can win by a much smaller margin. And, despite the KMT's recent humiliation, it still has vast financial and organizational resources. Victory is perfectly plausible.
The success of the tactics prescribed above depend on two things. First, the ability of the KMT leadership to accept the brave new world in which it lives. It will have to work harder, take less for granted and live by the same democratic principles it helped establish with the lifting of martial law.
Second, it must be careful not to underestimate Chen. Despite the challenges he faces, he is still a savvy politician with the ability to surprise his opponents. As mayor, he won the respect of many KMT officials with whom he worked and he is much more skilled at working together with those of opposing views even than Lee.
When the besieged leaders of the once-mighty KMT emerge from their headquarters, they will be met with a very different Taiwan than the one they once knew. Nevertheless, it is an environment of great opportunity for the "New KMT." Political parties that adapt survive and the KMT need look no further than outside its own front door to embrace change or die.
Brian Shea is a freelance writer based in Taipei.
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