A moment comes which comes but rarely in history, when we step out from the old to the new, when an age ends; and when the soul of a nation long suppressed finds utterance....
Jawaharlal Nehru, speech announcing
India's independence, Aug. 15, 1947
Yesterday's election of Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) was a historical thunderclap that will echo for years to come. It is not just that the ruling party was defeated so convincingly, or even that this defeat ended more than 50 years of KMT rule. For more than half a century the fortunes of Taiwan have been dictated by the wavering fortunes of Chinese nationalism. For a half century before that they were dictated by the goals of expansionist Japanese imperialism. Chen is the first Taiwan leader ever who owes no allegiance to anywhere except Taiwan itself and no allegiance to any ideology except the pursuit of what is good for his native land. In electing Chen, Taiwan has, in Mao Zedong's (毛澤東) phrase, "stood up."
It has stood up, first and foremost, to China. Taiwan has had only two democratic presidential elections and during both of them China acted unconscionably in trying to influence the outcome in a way favorable to the candidate of its choice. In both 1996 and yesterday it was to be resoundingly rebuffed. Taiwanese were not intimidated by Zhu Rongji's (朱鎔基) hysterical outburst last Wednesday or Tang Shubei's (唐樹備) veiled threats the following day. In fact there is convincing anecdotal evidence already to suggest that a large number of undecided voters were swung into the Chen camp by their outrage at China's behavior. "Taiwan thumbs its nose at Beijing," read a headline last night on CNN's website. Quite.
Secondly, Taiwan's people have opted for change. Even had Chen lost to James Soong (宋楚瑜), they would still have done so. The combined vote against the KMT's Lien Chan (連戰) was a huge indictment of how sick people in this country have become with the KMT, its complacency, its dearth of talent, its lack of imagination, its recycling of the proven incompetent and, above everything, its tolerance, even fostering, of corruption. Voters showed they had had enough.
Thirdly, Taiwanese once again proved they had to be treated with respect. China did not do this of course, but then neither did the KMT. Its attempt to manipulate voters' emotions by teaming up with the Chinese Communists to try to scare them into voting KMT was discreditable. Moreover, the campaign itself treated people like fools. Anybody who saw the absurd TV advertising by the soon-to-be-ex-ruling party, of which the nuclear submarine ad had to be the most egregious example, could only feel that their intelligence had been insulted. Their reaction was similar to that in the last nationwide election, the 1997 elections for city mayors and county commissioners, in which the KMT ran a campaign treating voters like imbeciles. In both cases, voters slapped the party in the face.
While yesterday might be a historical turning point, its result does not mean that everything is going to be plain sailing for Chen. There is, first and foremost, the hostility of China to be dealt with. There is the wariness of the US, which has shown itself almost utterly unprepared for a Chen victory. There is fractious domestic squabbling at home, and Chen's lack of a legislative majority might seriously impede him in doing the job that is crucial to Taiwan's future development: divesting the KMT of its business empire. Chen has also to win the confidence of the armed forces and the security services.
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