What now, President Chen?

The champagne flowed last night, and the mood of celebration has continued today. But tomorrow it will be Monday, the start of another workweek.

To maintain a peaceful transfer of power after the intense emotions of the election campaign, especially in the face of potential tension across the Taiwan Strait, the new president must start working out a transitional mechanism to alleviate both domestic and external instability. The question for the president-elect is simple: "What next?"

It is not impossible that Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) victory will be followed by either some sharp, overt cross-strait emergency, or a sharp stock market slump. However, it is perhaps more likely that the period between now and inauguration day on May 20 will be a time of crisis rumor-mongering but with no real crisis actually happening.

The crux of the matter will depend on how efficiently president-elect Chen can coordinate with outgoing President Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) on matters related to national security, as well as how he will start assembling his team to initiate domestic reforms.

First Stage

(March 18-March 25)

The transfer of administration inevitably creates tensions between the outgoing president and his staff and the incoming team. Especially since this is the first time in Taiwan's history that an alternation of power has occurred, problems could arise if President Lee and his advisors hesitate to fully cooperate with Chen.

However, Chen had already set up a National Policy Advisory Committee before the election, headed by Nobel laureate Lee Yuan-tseh (李遠哲). Its members' distinguished reputations provided positive electoral momentum for Chen; this public confidence means that they can play a role as needed to help defuse any potential crises in the post-election period.

In terms of how to prevent the stock market from plunging again, Chen needs to consult with the incumbent financial and economic ministers to discuss the possibility of introducing the National Stabilization Fund into the market. For the sake of maintaining a stable market system, the outgoing administration should offer necessary assistance to the president-elect.

Handling international reaction, especially from Beijing, might be more complicated. To alleviate national security concerns, Taiwan's military should reiterate its intention -- stated just prior to the election -- to serve the new president immediately. The president-elect should also request daily briefings from the defense ministry as well as the national security agencies to monitor any possible PLA moves.

There is a role for the international community as well. Since democracy, peace and stability are the shared interests of most countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the major powers, led by the US, should reiterate their willingness to work with the new president.

To prohibit a potential flareup of cross-strait tensions, Washington should reemphasize its commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act. The US needs to show its support for the democratic process in Taiwan, and its continued commitment to the status quo of Taiwan's international status and a peaceful cross-strait environment.

Since there are currently neither official nor semi-official channels for Taiwan and China to engage in dialogue, Washington may play a constructive role by sending high level officials to Beijing to urge the Chinese leadership to not over-react to Taiwan's election.