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Poll shows China's white paper benefits Chen

Many people are quite skeptical about just exactly what kind of impact has resulted from China's white paper "The One China Principle and the Taiwan Problem." The results of a recent poll should give us some helpful insights.

In a March 5 nationwide poll conducted by Rex International PR Consultants (決策公關公司), in responding to "whom you would vote for if the election were to be held tomorrow," the support rates for the various teams of candidates were respectively 20.3 percent for Lien Chan and Vincent Siew (蕭萬長), 24.1 percent for James Soong (宋楚瑜) and Chang Chao-hsiung (張昭雄), 24.2 percent for Chen Shui-bian and Annette Lu (呂秀蓮), 2 percent for Hsu Hsin-liang (許信良) and Chu Hui-liang (朱惠良), and 0.8 percent for Li Ao (李敖) and Elmer Feng (馮滬祥). It is worth noting also that 28.7 percent of the interviewees remained undecided.

Although it is hard to estimate how close this poll result will come to the actual election result, a cross-tabulation analysis of the responses to some questions yielded three interesting discoveries. First, China's white paper has apparently triggered popular resentment. Most of the interviewees resented the white paper and these people were spread evenly across supporters of the three top candidates. 67.7 percent of the interviewees indicated that they found the Chinese white paper either "not quite acceptable," or "not acceptable in the slightest." Another 20.7 percent said either that "they hold no feeling" or "no comment."

Among the supporters for all three front-runners, the percentage of those who oppose the white paper runs even higher. The lowest figure was found among Soong supporters, but 70 percent of the group nevertheless found the white paper unacceptable. The same result occurred when the results were analyzed by supporters of the three major political parties and those without any party affiliations. The figures tell us that the resentment triggered by the Chinese white paper was spread evenly across party lines and camps.

Second, the popular will has not swung to an extreme on the issue of future cross-strait relationship. Many (48.6 percent) supported Lien Chan's (連戰) proposal that "if China reciprocates with good will, then the cross-strait relation may enter the `medium term' as described in the Guidelines of National Unification (國統綱領)." A smaller number (24 percent) were inclined to oppose this policy. We know that, under the Guidelines of National Unification, reaching the `medium term' means the beginning of political negotiations by the two sides. Again, across party and candidate support groups, more people support the proposal than those oppose it. For example, among DPP supporters, 45.7 percent supported the proposal, while 37.8 percent opposed it.

This tells us, irrespective of their political stance, Taiwanese seemed to look forward to seeing an easing in cross-strait relations after the election. Moreover, as long as China reciprocates with good will, the people of Taiwan seemed to have reached a consensus about engaging in political negotiations with China. The popular will in Taiwan remained pragmatic after the issuance of the Chinese white paper. This tells us that the popular will is becoming more sophisticated and less ideological.

Thirdly, China's white paper not only failed to scare away those interviewees who support Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) to begin with, but in fact may have helped Chen expand his support. In response to the question "Would you change your mind about supporting Chen Shui-bian because China said that Chen and Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) are the same," 32.6 percent answered "No, I will go on supporting him," while 2.4 percent said "Yes, I would no longer support him."

On the other hand, 43.9 percent answered "No, because I did not support him in the first place," and 0.9 percent indicated that "I did not support him in the first place, but now I have decided to support him." All together, 33.5 percent of the interviewees support Chen when we add the first group with the fourth group. Interestingly enough, the figure is greater than the percentage of people who initially said would vote for Chen, 24.20 percent, by a margin of 9.3 percent. Since 0.3 percent of the interviewees had initially indicated that they would vote for Chen, but subsequently changed their mind, we conclude that China's white paper has the potential to help Chen win over an additional 9 percent of supporters.

This poll demonstrated that China's conduct had in fact shot herself in the foot. If the People's Liberation Army were to come out even less ambiguously, it would only further benefit Chen. To all the candidates and to the international community, the message is clear. The popular will in Taiwan is not extreme: pursuit of a stable and peaceful cross-strait relationship is the mainstream view. At the same time, people will definitely not give in to Chinese coercion.

Hsu Szu-chien is an assistant research fellow at the Institute of International Relations, National Chengchi University.
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