Transition of power is never easy

Tremendous friction is almost always created by the transfer of power, whether it takes place in democratic countries or totalitarian ones, even if the power is transferred to a designated successor. This is part of human nature.

A subtle chemical reaction is fermenting between President Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) and Vice President Lien Chan (連戰), who is enthusiastically engaged in a search for his own identity.

Lien advocates the placement of the KMT's assets into a trust. He has also said that, after the party is transformed into an electoral machine modeled after the US system, the role of the party chairman would be significantly reduced.

Jason Hu (胡志強) has formally denied that Lien ever made these statements. However, rumors of Lien forcing Lee's abdication from the party throne and trying to absorb Lee's power are rampant.

These rumors are not completely groundless. Lee and Lien come from totally different backgrounds; their personalities and beliefs are drastically different as well. Their close associates dislike each other and they have different political enemies.

Moreover, the KMT is facing a battle for its survival. Whether the KMT wins this battle or not, it will never be able to regain the prominence it had before.

Lien is at a disadvantage before the media. Therefore, he is someone who is easily underestimated and wrongly appraised, often becoming a target of scorn. However, very few people truly loathe him.

Of all the candidates, he appears to lack much of a personality; on the other hand, he does not appear to be completely without his own opinions.

He has few enemies, but he does not seem to be unconcerned about right and wrong.

Compared to Lee's strong character, he is more tolerant and peaceful; compared to James Soong's (宋楚瑜) calculating aggressiveness, he looks passive.

Interestingly, many people who oppose Lee are campaigning for Lien, some from the New Party and some from the KMT's non-mainstream factions. It goes without saying how Lee's camp must feel about this situation.

However, winning the election takes absolute priority. Even if he does not feel easy about Lien, Lee has no choice but to support him until the end.

This election appears to be a showdown between Lee and Soong. Under Lee's protective umbrella, Lien has not yet been dragged into the bloodbath.

If Lien is elected, Lee, more than anyone else, deserves Lien's gratitude, but he must then bow out from the spotlight.

It appears that Lee will continue as KMT chairman after the election. However, the presidency and the KMT chairman seat have never been held by two different persons. In the future, the KMT will certainly move toward a democratic party model and the position of the party chairman will plummet in importance.

If Lien is elected president and Lee retains the party chairmanship, then the two would experience a reversal in their power dynamics. With additional pressure exerted by the push and pull both within and without the party, the relationship between the two will become tense. Not only is a Lee Kuan Yew (李光耀) model not possible, but a political battle may ensue.

Lee's continued occupation of the chairman's seat would only serve to diminish his democratic accomplishments. To someone with such a strong sense of mission as Lee, the road ahead will be difficult.

In order to assure his position in history, Lee must decide how to comply with democratic traditions, maintain good sportsmanship and refrain from meddling in the affairs of state -- for the sake of establishing a precedence for the peaceful transfer of political power.