Time for a rethink of the `one China' doctrine

With Macau now firmly under Beijing's control, predictions about Taiwan's future are intensifying. According to the Communist leadership, "renegade" Taiwan must soon be brought back into the Chinese fold. The curious thing is that Western opinion seems to be moving in a similar direction.

Many US and European obser-vers are speculating that, if the West really wants access to the fabulous markets that 1.3 billion Chinese entail, they may have to sacrifice Taiwan.

The sheer size of China's alleged emerging superpowerdom, in both economic and military terms, suggests that an accommodation with President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) and his comrades (and successors) is inevitable.

In the light of the Korean and Vietnam Wars, Western opinion was once firm on the principle of non-communist Taiwan's independence. But in 1972 the `one China' doctrine was announced by President Richard Nixon and Zhou Enlai (周恩來). The US moved subtly away from Taiwan, providing Beijing with military technology, intelligence and propaganda support for its anti-Russian stance.

It quickly drew the Chinese regime into its Cold War strategy, placing intolerable economic pressure on the Soviet Union. The "China card" was played brilliantly -- especially by Henry Kissinger -- in helping to bring the Soviet dinosaur to its knees.

One historical orthodoxy has it that the Chinese state has always and will always be absolutist and dynastic. In this view, democracy is beyond Chinese political expectations. But Taiwan is a remarkable refutation of this thesis. In the past decade it has constructed one of the most viable democracies in the world, one in which human rights are constitutionally guaranteed -- all in the context of enviable economic growth.

Not only is Taiwan a refutation of the absolutism of the Chinese state, it also contradicts the "Asian values" assertion that Asian prosperity is only achievable through political authoritarianism. (South Korea, the Philippines, Japan and India also contradict the "Asian values" apology for authoritarianism.) Taiwan is unselfconsciously Confucian, energetically democratic and rich. Far more so, for example, than Singapore.

The unprincipled warming of the West towards Beijing rests on shaky assumptions about China's future. Can we complacently assume that China will continue to be a unified and stable state?

The radical reforms to the Chinese economy, initiated by Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) in 1978, are beginning to have far-reaching and disruptive social consequences. The deregulation of state industries has resulted in increased unemployment and declining working conditions for millions of workers.

The political unrest this is stoking should not be under-

estimated. In some regions, rebellions have broken out as wages are cut and the old labor-intensive industries are ruthlessly restructured by an emerging class of private managers and owners.

Bedevilling the processes of economic reform is a rapid growth of corruption. Organized crime syndicates have moved into the prosperous economic zones. Growing inequalities, violence and crime are starting to emulate the anarcho-capitalism now eating into the very heart of the Russian economy.

The unrest associated with economic "reform" is being aggravated by the unregulated polluting of cities and countryside by irresponsible industrial development. We can expect environmental concerns to increase as more Chinese become aware of versions of industrialization that undermine public health -- as culpable Japanese authorities discovered in the wake of the "Minimata disease" crisis that followed the poisoning of fish with industrial mercury.