More than one million people gave their endorsements in a signature drive to place independent presidential candidate James Soong's (
When I worked in a state-owned enterprise in the 1970's, the KMT often conducted surveys of party members about the party's prospective candidates for upcoming elections. I often campaigned for those with an especially tarnished image in the hope that the KMT, a totalitarian regime at the time, would soon disintegrate.
However, when it came to election time, I would definitely not vote for them. Some people give their endorsements out of genuine support, while some may do so for other reasons.
For example, many Taiwan Independence Party (TAIP,
The recent financial scandal surrounding Soong has caused his reputation and popularity to hit rock bottom. Although the actual number of supporters who have deserted him isn't great, politicians who were on the verge of joining his camp are now bailing out. For this reason, his camp did everything possible to obtain endorsements in the hope of salvaging the situation.
Many Soong's supporters have a "great China" mentality and they are convinced that the time is ripe for a come back of the old KMT. Therefore, they worked hard to push Soong's endorsement. People who received special "help" from Soong also mobilized vote-buyers to help with the signature drive.
However, the adamant support for Soong among those with a "great China" mentality has alarmed people with a "Taiwan consciousness." As a result, an unorganized and disparate group is gradually merging into a mighty force against the "great China" consciousness.
Soong knows it will be difficult to attract "Taiwan consciousness" voters. Therefore, he has tried to disguise his support for unification by coming up with the idea of "quasi-international relations" between Taiwan and China and the signing of a 30-years peace treaty with Beijing. Anyone with a shred of political wisdom would realize that this is nothing but a scam.
Germany, England, France and Italy signed the Munich Pact in 1938 compelling Czechoslovakia to cede part of its border to Germany in exchange for the promise of a secure new border. Germany engulfed Czechoslovakia anyway in 1939, the same year it signed a peace treaty under which they secretly agreed to carve up Poland. Despite the treaty, Hitler invaded Poland. Russia declared war on Japan in 1945 despite a neutrality treaty the two signed in 1941.
International treaties cannot compel the compliance of states. Not only is Soong's proposed agreement unable to protect Taiwan's security, it is dangerous because it would put people off their guard.
Soong knows he has no chance of winning the presidency without attracting "Taiwan consciousness" voters. However, it has apparently not occurred to him that building a rapport with other camps takes time. He cannot wait until election time to take a stance. Even if Soong openly advocates Taiwan independence now, he would not necessarily attract more voters.
The same goes for Chen. He cannot win the support of voters with a "great China" mentality even if he were to openly advocate unification.
Chen Mao-hsiung is a professor at National Sun Yat-sen University.
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