History tells us that whether A-bian can retain his lead and win the election depends on whether he will be able to defeat a KMT"stability platform" -- which is, at least in part, linked with fears of a panic on the stock market.
The deadliest blow to the DPP from the KMT would be to harshly criticize Taiwan independence on the eve of the election and intimidate voters about possible post-election downsides to an A-bian victory.
In the 1994 provincial gubernatorial election, three major industrial and business groups jointly ran a huge newspaper ad alleging that once Chen Ting-nan (
A stability platform that integrates political coercion and economic fear is the last hill that A-bian must surmount.
He has indicated that once he is elected he would not push for a constitutional amendment on independence. The statement was something of a warm-up exercise against the KMT's anticipated final attack.
However, passively indicating a cautious attitude may simply not be enough. More substantive proposals about how to bolster prosperity, including measures to strengthen faith in the stock market would calm the people and avoid a panic on the eve of the election.
A-bian has long enjoyed a strong lead in terms of a reform image. He does not need to intensify attacks against others on this issue.
From a campaign strategy standpoint, A-bian's final sprint during the last two months of this campaign should focus on strengthening his leadership image and increasing faith in his ability to bring prosperity.
Only through proposing policies to maintain stability and promote prosperity will he be able to hold and maintain his current lead.
The key to A-bian's success is an equal emphasis on both prosperity and reform.
Julian Kuo is an associate professor of political science at Soochow University.
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