The James Soong (
Let us use a Dec. 26 survey as an example. In that poll the support rate for Chen surged to 29 percent, while support for Soong and Lien was, respectively, 26 percent and 20 percent.
"A-bian" (Chen's nickname) has stayed on top for two consecutive weeks. Even more importantly, more and more people, 20 percent, are beginning to believe that he will actually win the election.
This increase has eradicated concern that voters might "dump Chen to save Lien" out of a fear that Soong might win the election.
As a result, the morale of the pro-Chen voters is going through the roof. It looks like the Chen camp may very well strike while the iron is still hot and push him directly into the presidency.
In fact, word has it that Beijing is re-evaluating the possibility of ties with a DPP regime in the future.
The Soong scandal has once again highlighted "black gold" politics and put emphasis on the push for government reforms.
This is, of course, advantageous to A-bian who is less bogged down by "black gold" politics. He has been quite successful in winning voters' support by riding on the scandal to publicize his reform platform -- beginning an islandwide campaign tour with an anti-black-gold theme and bolstering his image as a fighter against dirty money politics.
The problem is that election day is still two-and-half-months off. Once the heat from the Soong scandal cools off, can this anti-black-gold platform continue to be the central theme of A-bian's campaign?
After all, the KMT is beginning to realize that the Soong scandal has not done much to help Lien. In addition, Soong has gone on the offensive to try to counteract the damage. Now almost one month old, the Soong scandal should soon enter its final stages.
However, the end of the scandal would not necessarily mean that the war over black gold is about to end. The KMT might designate A-bian as its next target. Soong and A-bian might both attack Lien by looking into his finances.
On the other hand, even if A-bian has skeletons in his money closet, they could not possibly be as great as the sum of money involved in the Soong scandal.
It is also unlikely that voters would be taken by surprise if it turns out that Lien owns a mountain of gold, since once again it is unlikely that anything comparable with the Soong scandal would result.
Now that the anti-black-gold fever has pushed A-bian into the front-runner's position, he has begun taking steps to secure his position.
Recently, he promised, in Tainan and Kaohsiung counties, that he would invite Chen Tang-shan (
In addition, a new Web site has been set up by the A-bian camp to encourage voters to nominate their choice for the next premier.
All these signs indicate that A-bian intends to introduce the concept of a "coalition cabinet" to expand and secure his support.
History tells us that whether A-bian can retain his lead and win the election depends on whether he will be able to defeat a KMT"stability platform" -- which is, at least in part, linked with fears of a panic on the stock market.
The deadliest blow to the DPP from the KMT would be to harshly criticize Taiwan independence on the eve of the election and intimidate voters about possible post-election downsides to an A-bian victory.
In the 1994 provincial gubernatorial election, three major industrial and business groups jointly ran a huge newspaper ad alleging that once Chen Ting-nan (
A stability platform that integrates political coercion and economic fear is the last hill that A-bian must surmount.
He has indicated that once he is elected he would not push for a constitutional amendment on independence. The statement was something of a warm-up exercise against the KMT's anticipated final attack.
However, passively indicating a cautious attitude may simply not be enough. More substantive proposals about how to bolster prosperity, including measures to strengthen faith in the stock market would calm the people and avoid a panic on the eve of the election.
A-bian has long enjoyed a strong lead in terms of a reform image. He does not need to intensify attacks against others on this issue.
From a campaign strategy standpoint, A-bian's final sprint during the last two months of this campaign should focus on strengthening his leadership image and increasing faith in his ability to bring prosperity.
Only through proposing policies to maintain stability and promote prosperity will he be able to hold and maintain his current lead.
The key to A-bian's success is an equal emphasis on both prosperity and reform.
Julian Kuo is an associate professor of political science at Soochow University.
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