On a more practical note, it's likely that if China actually attacked Taiwan the chances are that they would try and get the job over and done with as soon as possible. The advantage of a quick strike is that it would make it very difficult for Washington and its partners to come to the island's aid -- putting together durable coalitions is never easy at the best of times and holding them together is even harder. That could be a major issue if the People's Liberation Army (PLA) actually managed to establish itself on the island, thus raising the stakes of any military operation.
Finally, the repercussions for both regional and international security would probably be serious to say the least. Obviously, it would place Washington in direct opposition to Beijing. A decision by Japan to side with America, meanwhile, would mean that the country's relationship with China would erupt into open hostility, thereby exposing the most dangerous geopolitical fault-line in East Asia today. Globally, China would probably respond by withdrawing its support for a range of international agreements. It may even lead to a further strengthening of the relationship between China and Russia.
Does this mean that the United States and others would simply shut their eyes and look the other way, or simply impose a raft of ineffective economic and other sanctions, in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan? That's difficult to say -- there's always a chance that, despite all the obvious dangers, they'll decide it is in the interest of long-term peace and stability to punish such an act of wanton aggression.
Rather than waiting to find out, however, Admiral Doran and others in the military should probably spend more time thinking about how to stop the crisis from erupting in the first place than talking about what to do once the conflict has already broken out.
Damon Bristow is the Head of the Asia Program at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense Studies in London.
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