Lien Chan was named the director of reconstruction efforts in Taiwan after last month's quake struck. In charge of hundreds of billions of New Taiwan dollars earmarked for rebuilding, and with an assured spotlight in the media, Lien's ratings have improved. James Soong's ratings recently dropped below 30 percent for the first time in some opinion polls, putting him neck and neck with Lien and Chen Shui-bian. With their eyes on the polls, the entire KMT, from local chapters to the highest echelons of party power, are convinced that, "God is protecting Lien, delivering an earthquake to save the party."
Reconstruction efforts have only been going apace for three weeks, however, and we have only passed through the first stage of political debates over rescue efforts. The first stage is the easiest one, concentrating on rescue efforts and bringing peace of mind to the public. Lien, the director of rescue efforts and sitting on a mountain of reconstruction funds, has naturally become the symbolic savior for quake victims.
The second stage will focus on reconstruction.
Debates at this stage will center on forcing the government to make good on its promises, finding out who is to blame, and dividing up resources. The memory of the quake will still be fresh in the public's mind, and they will not be satisfied if the government si seen as doing little more than placating them. The public will demand more concrete assistance from the government, and Lien will naturally become the target if he is not careful.
The breathing space afforded to Lien by the earthquake will not last long, and he will face three types of challenges when reconstruction efforts begin in earnest.
The first will be the dilemma of trying to fulfil all of the government's promises. This will challenge the government's competence. Many have already begun to question the government's ability to coordinate its efforts, however, as the government has already "bounced" three "promise" checks. The first was when the government promised to complete the assessment of destroyed and partially destroyed housing within two weeks of the quake. The government frequently changed its definition for determining which houses were destroyed and which were partially destroyed, however, and there were not enough assessors on the ground. Moreover, the village and borough chiefs, given the power to make these determinations, were often pressured by local forces to change their rulings. The government had not completed the task by the third week, and there was a lot of disagreement about the meager results the government had produced in any case.
The government also could not make good on its promise to distribute all disaster compensation monies by October 16. Township authorities were unable to complete the distribution, the distribution standards were not unified, and some local authorities kept the funds for themselves. There were rumors that as many as 80 percent of earthquake victims were unable to receive any of the funds in some locations. Premier Siew later announced that the Executive Yuan would severely punish any local governments that did not meet the deadline, but nothing came of his stern words.
The last bad check the government wrote came as the government's promise to find housing for all earthquake victims by the end of October. The government has remained seriously behind schedule both in demolishing destroyed houses and in the setting up of temporary housing. Private businesses are not interested in tearing down buildings because of the low profits involved. The government could use the emergency decree to force private businesses to put their machinery to work, but is worried about going against private interests.
The government's sincerity will face a severe test in the near future when the public begins to sort out who is to blame for much of the mess. Investigations will begin into government and business collusion which may be behind much of the substandard building, as well as mistakes made by officials during rescue operations.
Rumors have already surfaced that there are heavyweight KMT local interests behind the construction firms that built the Doctor's Home and Lungke, two residential communities in Taipei County that collapsed in last month's earthquake. The government has detained the management of the construction companies, but many are still suspected of collusion. The Hanchi Construction Company, which built a number of structures that collapsed last month, is also rumored to be backed by Chang Jung-wei, a former KMT member who now is the speaker of the Yunlin County Assembly. The rumors will most likely increase as we draw closer to the by-elections on Nov. 6 for a new Yunlin County commissioner, and the media will be watching to see whether the KMT-run government will carry out a thorough investigation in the matter or not.
Trying to figure out how to divide resources will be another challenge for the government. It is particularly important that the government avoid "black gold" politics, and is able to maintain quality in the projects it hands out to private contractors. The emergency decree renders existing regulations and supervisory mechanisms useless, a bone of contention among the New Party and DPP. They feel that the KMT is trying to sideline the Legislative Yuan and county governments, and using the emergency decree to weave together KMT and local interests in preparation for next year's presidential election. In order to establish their own legitimacy, the New Party and DPP will most probably gather together evidence of KMT wrongdoing, casting doubt on the KMT's continued popularity.
The immensity of funds required for reconstruction efforts is bound to put a squeeze on government finances. The government has already announced that there will be no wage increases for military personnel, public officials or teachers next year, and it is likely that central government funding of infrastructure projects will be cut in counties not hit by the quake. If scandals appear during reconstruction, it is very possible that these groups may react strongly.
The government's ability to make good on its promises, its commitment to prosecuting those responsible for unnecessary damage from the quake, and its method of dividing up available resources will test the government's competence, sincerity, and overall quality. In sum, a big headache is in store for the KMT. It is too early, really, to say whether the earthquake will save the KMT or not.
Julian Kuo is an associate professor of political science at Soochow University.
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