No easy fix for thorny cross-strait situation

Although over half a century has passed since a new government was established in China, Washington is still trying to sort out its relationship with Beijing. Both academics and government officials quarrel over the implications of a rising China.

Is China a revisionist power that seeks to undermine or debilitate the prevailing norms of the international community? Or is it a responsible country that might best be described as a status quo power? A brief review of China's ties with several of its most important neighbors may help to answer these questions.

China enjoys a robust economic relationship with Japan. Japanese exports to China are setting records and are largely responsible for that nation's economic recovery. And Chinese exports to Japan have exploded and now surpass US exports to Japan. With respect to international politics, both of these Asian giants agree on numerous issues -- including the need for a non-nuclear Korean peninsula and a peaceful resolution to the North Korean nuclear crisis.

China and South Korea were once bitter enemies. But China is now South Korea's largest trading partner and the top investment destination for South Korean corporations. Like Japan, South Korea's economic recovery may be attributed largely to its growing commercial ties with China. This strengthened economic relationship has helped foster cultural ties. But far more significant political bonds between the two governments have grown much closer as a result of China's constructive efforts to defuse the North Korean nuclear crisis.

China has replaced the US as Taiwan's largest export market and Taiwanese firms have invested over US$100 billion in China. Also, several hundred thousand Taiwanese now reside in China. Although China will not rule out the use of force to take Taiwan, a nation it still considers a breakaway province, it has been calling for the peaceful unification of China under the so-called "one country, two systems" formula since the 1970s.

Unfortunately, China continues to embrace this approach even though public opinion polls reveal that almost no one in Taiwan supports it. Moreover, China's persistent policy of bullying Taiwan -- single-handedly blocking its membership in most international organizations and deploying hundreds of missiles directly opposite the island -- serves only to reinforce the Taiwanese perception that China is an unfriendly power.

To be sure, China's relations with its neighbors are not without their problems. But China might best be described as a responsible country that does not seek to destabilize the global system. For example, China seeks to preserve the status quo in Japan by strongly opposing a militarized and rearmed Japan. China also has played an active role in preserving the status quo on the Korean peninsula. It supports the idea of a nuclear-free Korean peninsula and seeks to prevent the outbreak of another Korean conflict. Perhaps most intriguing, a strong case can be made that China actually supports the maintenance of status quo in the Taiwan Strait. Rather than promote unification on its terms, most of Beijing's energies now are directed at a preservation of the status quo and obstructing the establishment of a new Republic of Taiwan.

There is no easy resolution to the dispute between China and Taiwan. For China this is not a matter of foreign policy. Rather, it is a domestic political problem. From the Taiwanese perspective, however, China tends increasingly to be considered as an aggressive and hostile foreign power. Consequently, the maintenance of the status quo in this instance may not be sustainable or desirable. Rather, new thinking will be required in Washington, Taipei and especially Beijing to prevent this quarrel from spinning out of control and ending in disaster.

Dennis Hickey is a Southwest Missouri State University professor of politics.