New Yorkers spent the last year trying to get used to their new skyline, one without the World Trade Center. The terrorists that knocked down the twin towers did more than change the look of Manhattan -- they also prompted debate about the future of skyscrapers.
Which isn't hard to understand. After what happened with New York's fabled towers, companies may be loath to occupy space that may be a future target. Employees may not want to work in them either. And then there are the massive costs of insuring gleaming new structures against terrorism.
The events of Sept. 11 also bring to mind another debate -- that of the "Skyscraper Curse." There's an uncanny correlation between attempts to construct the world's tallest building and financial crises. Be it New York in 1930, Chicago in 1974, Kuala Lumpur in 1997 or the biblical Tower of Babel long before that, efforts to erect mankind's next architectural monstrosity have proved a reliable indicator of economic meltdowns.
Hence the "Skyscraper Index" that Andrew Lawrence, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities, has been tabulating in recent years. Lawrence's unconventional economic barometer has been quite spot on in connecting the dots between epidemics of towering hubris and economic problems.
In the late 1920s, the completion of the Chrysler and Empire State buildings coincided with the Great Depression. The 1970s saw the erection of the 416m World Trade Center and Chicago's 442m Sears Tower amid stagflation, a fiscal crisis in New York and the breakdown of the Bretton Woods monetary system. The completion of Kuala Lumpur's Petronas Towers in 1997 coincided with the collapse of Asia's economies.
The desire to erect the tallest building seems to have much to do with sudden capital inflows that pump up credit creation and confidence. It's often periods of over-investment and financial speculation, fueled by excessive monetary expansion, that drives developers and politicians to architectural one-upmanship. In recent years, such projects have been brought on less by advances in architectural design and technological innovation than by economic booms.
Developers and politicians alike might be considered both optimists and gamblers. Few ever quit when they're ahead. At the same time, booms in tall buildings -- as well as their changing geographic locations -- mirror not just the timing but the dynamics and fundamental changes in the world economy. Having claim to the world's tallest man-made peak is a much about ambition as it is about excess.
It's ironic, then, that things in the global economy aren't panning out how the Skyscraper Index suggests they should. The economies of the nations that possess the five tallest buildings in the world are either booming or doing better than expected.
Could it be that the Skyscraper Curse is no more? Perhaps.
Malaysia might be home to the biggest building, but its economic performance has surprised even the optimists in recent years. China, home to three of the five tallest buildings, is the world's fastest growing economy. The US, whose Sears Tower is the world's second-tallest skyscraper, hasn't seen the Armageddon many investors feared. Growth is weak and stocks are down, but there's been no macroeconomic collapse.
China, after all, should be a big concern. The soon-to-be-completed Shanghai Financial Center will rise 483m over what's arguably Asia's most dynamic city. A planned project in Hong Kong would be even taller. Beyond that, China and Hong Kong boast six of the 20 tallest buildings currently in use, according to Skyscrapers.com.
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