Unemployment in China is likely to rise to its worst levels ever over the next four years, with more than 20 million people out of work, a Cabinet minister was quoted Monday as saying.
Soaring joblessness "could well undermine social stability," the state-run China Daily newspaper quoted Deputy Labor Minister Wang Dongjin as saying.
Wang's warning contrasted sharply with an upbeat new government report on labor issued Monday ahead of May 1 international labor day.
It said the government aims to ensure "well-nigh full employment." But the report, issued by the Chinese cabinet's Information Office, acknowledged that "structural unemployment will become more serious for a long time to come."
Wang's comments were an unusually candid official admission of the pain facing workers as China tries to overhaul its state-dominated economy.
State companies have cut tens of millions of jobs in an attempt to become profitable.
Millions more are expected to lose their jobs as a result of China's new membership in the WTO. China has promised to open its markets to foreign competition, exposing farms and companies to competition by cheaper, higher-quality imports and more efficient rivals.
Wang said China has "a serious oversupply of labor, with the number of people coming into the labor market reaching an unprecedented peak," the China Daily reported.
The state-run newspaper said 12 million to 13 million new workers could enter the labor market each year for the next few years.
But it cited Wang as saying that even with an economic growth rate of 7 percent a year, only 8 million jobs can be created annually.
"An excessive labor supply coupled with pressures caused by obsolete job skills has resulted in a grim employment situation," Wang said at a seminar on Sunday, the China Daily reported.
China's true unemployment situation is even worse, because official figures count only those formally registered as jobless. They ignore tens of millions of out-of-work farmers and furloughed employees who are still counted on their companies' books.
Authorities in China's northeast, a center for heavy industry that has suffered massive job cuts, have faced protests this spring by tens of thousands of laid-off factory and oilfield workers in the cities of Daqing and Liaoyang.
In Liaoyang, authorities quelled protests by detaining four labor leaders.
The State Council's report on labor issues -- 15,000 Chinese characters long -- did not mention the protests. But it acknowledged that only 17 million of the 25.5 million people laid off by state firms in 1998-2001 have found new jobs.
The report claimed an unemployment rate of 3.6 percent in cities last year. It said the government aims to keep the rate within 5 percent.
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