While so far there is little evidence of a large-scale backlash, some consumers are beginning to grumble about being forced to continually buy and relearn new equipment just to keep up to speed. "The machines are supposed to be easier to use with each generation," said Douglas Rushkoff, a novelist who often writes about the Internet. But now, he said, "Microsoft has to sell me software that comes packaged with a built-in wizard to help me figure things out."
Rushkoff said he increasingly felt trapped on the software treadmill. "It's gotten so bad that I'm now forced to write articles about technology just to be able to get money to pay for the new printer I need to print out the article," he said.
Although many computer engineers foresee the current trend accelerating into the future, historians of technology point out that many other technologies have gone through similar periods of rapid growth before flattening out. "Electricity, the telegraph, steel and even nuclear power all went through similar periods of rapid progress only to fade into being more mature and less wildly enthusiastic markets," said John Staudenmaier, a history professor at the University of Detroit Mercy.
"Every now and then we go through these periods of quasi-religious fervor," Staudenmaier said.
"Today the market is still panting about the expansion of bandwidth and processing power," he added, referring to the increase in speed of Internet connections, "but gradually computers will become more ordinary."
Maybe so, but for now the treadmill is purring along nicely, and computer users are tossing out the old and bringing in the new at a feverish pace.
"Every civilization has its defining attribute," said Paul Saffo, a director at the Institute for the Future. "In Egypt of the pharaohs it was the ubiquitous blue-green faience, or in the Mayan classic period it was red polychrome pottery. For us, archaeologists will dig down to find a 3-inch-thick layer of Z80 microprocessors."
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