Yet in the same six months, temporary jobs fell 167,000 overall, and the trend was negative five of six months.
This isn't to suggest that significant temporary job loss always points to recession. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill and the National Bureau of Economic Research recognize that we will never know for sure whether the economy would have fallen into recession if not for Sept. 11. Those looking to temporary employment as a crystal ball should note that manufacturing sank much sooner in the latest recession than the rest of the economy.
While there is a perception that the rise of temporary help over the last decade reflects a surge in service-sector jobs, Princeton economics professor Alan Krueger notes that a large portion of temporary hires -- some say more than a third -- is in manufacturing. An early decline in manufacturing may therefore have triggered an early loss of temporary jobs prior to the recession setting in.
Recent economic history would thus suggest that, were the economy truly on the road to recovery, temporary hires would be picking up. In the last three months, however, the hiring of temporary workers fell by a whopping 247,000 jobs, including 55,000 in December.
To be sure, this is only one sign among many mixed signals.
Still, this instinctive optimist will find it easier to maintain that outlook if the January employment report -- to be released Feb. 1 -- shows us some good news on temporary employees.
Gene Sperling, who was former US president Bill Clinton's top economic adviser, is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.
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