The pictures of Apple Computer Inc's new iMac one-piece computer don't do it justice. On paper, it looks like its designers took too many puffs on the hashish bong. The iMac even looks slightly like a bong -- on paper.
On display at the Apple Store in Cambridge, the iMac seems elegant, graceful, even subtle. The odd, half-spherical computer is a comfortable shade of off-white. Rising from its top is a gleaming stainless steel arm that lets you smoothly adjust the iMac's monitor to the perfect viewing angle. This arm, and the excellent 15-inch monitor it supports, manages the neat trick of making the iMac disappear. You scarcely notice the rest of the computer, as your eyes are drawn directly to the screen.
It's a flat-panel screen, or LCD, the kind that uses liquid crystals and fluorescent light to draw images, instead of the glowing phosphorus of a cathode-ray tube, or CRT. Apple began its planning for the new iMac with the flat monitor, and built the rest of the system around it. Indeed, the company last year committed itself to a flat-screen future, announcing that it would no longer offer CRT monitors for any of its computers. Apple users can still buy them from other suppliers. But from now on, any monitor with an Apple brand will be an inch thick.
Which tells you something about the state of flat-panel technology. Apple CEO Steve Jobs has the politician's knack of noticing which way the parade is marching, and rushing to the front with a baton.
He did it with USB, the computer interface that had appeared on millions of PCs, but really took off when Apple offered it on the original iMac. Now Jobs is announcing the "death of the CRT," as the new iMac and the rest of Apple's product line show the way to a flat, thin future.
* According to Chinese media last week, Taiwanese computer maker Quanta will receive all the orders from Apple to produce the new iMac.
* Shipments of the new iMac are estimated to reach 600,000 units this year. Analysts say the order would account for 9 percent of Quanta's total sales this year.
* Quanta is Apple's major contract maker for notebook PCs in Taiwan, while Hon Hai Precision supplies computer components and makes casings for Apple's desktop computers.
In fact, the CRT will be with us for many years. But even without Apple's help, flat-panel sales are soaring, propelled by lower prices and steady improvements in quality. Even lowly PC makers understand this. IBM Corp has been selling an all-in-one business PC with flat panel for the better part of two years. Struggling Gateway Inc now offers cut-rate models with LCD screens for home users. Flat panels are just a US$150 price cut away from becoming the standard in monitors.
Roger Kay of International Data Corp mistakenly said earlier this week that LCDs are already outselling CRT monitors. Not even close. According to data from Kay's own firm, only about 15 percent of last year's computer monitors were LCDs. But that number is expected to hit 23 percent this year and 41 percent by 2005.
"2001 was the year LCDs really gained acceptance as a viable option for consumers to purchase," says Samir Bhavnani, an analyst with ARS Inc. Falling prices made it happen. You'd pay US$1,000 for a 15-incher a year ago. By Christmas, they were selling for under US$500.
Recession pricing? Yes, but most of the credit goes to the guys in the lab. Companies are good at making CRTs; they've had decades to learn the art. Flat-panel technology is relatively young, and far more finicky. Every single dot or pixel on the panel is a critical electronic circuit. Bad pixels create dead spots that must be fixed. Too many dead spots and the whole screen must be tossed.
But engineers in Japan, China, Taiwan and South Korea have steadily lowered their reject rate. That has meant a flood of good, sharp screens, and prices low enough to make them a practical choice for consumers.
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