Potter, of the Digital Media Association, said he hoped regulators would find that the labels had crossed the antitrust line "when they collectively don't sell to anybody else, then open their own stores."
But how the Justice Department will weigh the evidence is very difficult to predict, said Eric Scheirer, a music industry analyst with Forrester Research. Antitrust law comes down to very technical issues, he said, and it is unlikely the government will find a "smoking gun," like correspondence among label executives encouraging one another not to sign deals with startups.
But Scheirer said the mere existence of an inquiry, coupled with growing pressure from Congress, could affect behavior. "Seen through a political lens, it is calculated to encourage the industry to solve this in the marketplace -- to create a wider legitimate marketplace."
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