As an American, a New Yorker by birth and a resident of Washington DC until a month ago, Tuesday's terrorist attacks were especially surreal for me.
That I still don't know how many friends or family members I lost back home is one reason. So is knowing that tens of thousands of people, some of whom I may have shared subway cars and taxis with, may have lost their lives. Seeing landmarks in cities I hold dear reduced to rubble hardly helps.
Viewing the carnage from 12,800km to the east, I was struck -- and a bit embarrassed -- by how much I wanted to be there. By how much I longed to be in New York, experiencing this awful act along with citizens of a place I still consider home. Not that I could've done anything to help, but to understand what happened. To comprehend it in some way. If that's even possible.
I was equally struck -- and a bit disturbed -- by how much I cared about the terrorists' New York target. It's a building, for heaven's sake. It's the victims that matter, I remind myself. Forget the columns and beams.
Yet the World Trade Center wasn't just a building, but a symbol of America. It was the heart of the US economy and soul of the capitalist world. The further you're away from home, the clearer that becomes. Hence the attempt by terrorists to topple the twin towers in 1993. And hence the extremes -- hijacking commercial jets and crashing them into the 110-story structures -- to which terrorists went to finish the job this time around.
Those who sent the towers to the ground not only succeeded in changing life as we know it for Americans, but also their lifestyles -- at least in the short run. If there were ever a push strong enough to thrust an economy into recession, the US saw it yesterday.
The human toll of the attacks on New York and Washington will take time to sort out. So will the economic effects. But for an economy already teetering on the edge of recession, the horror of seeing the World Trade Center crumble and the Pentagon burn could very well tip the US into contraction.
That fallout will be felt far beyond US shores. The American economy accounts for a quarter of global trade, something investors had in mind yesterday when they sent the Nikkei stock average as low as the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the first time since 1957. The selling reflected fears the attacks will devastate global growth.
It's a rational fear at an entirely irrational moment in world history. US consumers are the glue holding together a fragile US economy. With scenes of planes flying into national landmarks filling television screens, it's doubtful Americans are thinking about shopping. That's where the trouble begins.
Consumer behavior is as much about psychology as economics. A family in Cleveland may not feel safe flying to California for vacation. Joe Six-Pack in Peoria, Illinois may not feel financially secure enough to visit auto dealerships this weekend to look at SUVs. Folks in Seattle may think twice about buying that new home.
People in New York may not be eating out very much in the weeks ahead. Once consumers stop spending, the US falters.
Nowhere will the closing of American wallets be felt more than here in Asia. Japan, for example, is pinning its hopes on an export-led economic recovery. Tokyo is actively trying to weaken the yen versus the US dollar to boost demand for Japanese goods abroad.
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