Atsuko Kida left the children at home during her third preview visit to Tokyo's DisneySea in less than a month.
"I really enjoyed the shows and I'd come back again just to watch the dancers," she said, watching serenading Italian gondoliers ply on a recreated Venice canal.
PHOTO: AFP
That is just the feedback Oriental Land Co wants for its second Disney theme park in Japan. The company bet US$2.8 billion that a Mediterranean carnival, a Broadway musical and a steamship bar will attract adults who never dreamed of visiting the home of Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck.
PHOTO: AP
The plan is to lure visitors from the five-month-old Universal Studios Japan rather than the 17-year-old Tokyo Disneyland and to promote repeat visits among a public facing recession and record-high unemployment.
Oriental Land expects the first seven months will see 10 million people visit DisneySea, which will charge the same 5,500 yen (US$46) for an all-day adult ticket as Tokyo Disneyland. Investors share its optimism, driving the stock up 8.5 percent this year as Japan's broad Topix index fell 17 percent.
"With attractions to lure not only families but also adults, especially older men, Oriental Land is likely to beat projections this year by at least 400,000 visitors," said Bi Kyo, an analyst at Tsubasa Research Institute Ltd.
Between 30,000 and 40,000 people may visit on opening day at the park, according to a survey of five analysts. The park sits on 71.4 hectares of reclaimed land on the shores of Tokyo Bay, a 15-minute train ride from the city center. Oriental Land paid royalties of Yn12.6 billion, about 6.3 percent of total sales, to Burbank, California-based Walt Disney Co in the year ended March 31.
That's about 12 percent of Walt Disney's net income of US$920 million in the year ended Sept. 30.
DisneySea's opening comes as Japan's economy teeters on the brink of recession. The nation's jobless rate hit a record-high of 5 percent in July. Overall household spending by families in Japan has fallen for eight straight years.
Between 1990 and 1999, the number of visitors to Japanese amusement parks fell 30 percent, according to a report by UBS Warburg (Japan) Ltd.
Oriental Land said attendance at Disneyland has fluctuated between 16.5 million and 17.3 million visitors over the past six years.
Park visitors may shell out less for food and merchandise as the economic slowdown forces consumers to tighten their purse-strings, said Toshihiko Okino, an analyst at UBS Warburg (Japan) who has visited Tokyo Disneyland more than 50 times and has a "reduce" rating on Oriental Land's stock.
There is also a chance the visitor numbers will fall off once the novelty of DisneySea fades.
Attendance in "the first year will be fine, because people will be excited, but the problem is from the second or third year," Okino said. "People will not be as excited about the opening of DisneySea as they were about Disneyland in 1983."
There is concern, too, that DisneySea, which is connected to Disneyland by a monorail, will siphon customers from the older park. While DisneySea will probably meet attendance projections, "the problem lies with Disneyland," said Eiji Tomaru, an analyst at Mizuho Investors Securities Co who has a "neutral plus" rating on the company's stock.
Spending per visitor may fall, too, as people who visit both parks over the course of two or three days won't buy twice as many stuffed animals, Mickey Mouse dolls and other souvenirs, said UBS Warburg's Okino.
Now more than ever, Oriental Land's success will depend on its ability to attract new visitors and keep them coming, analysts said. In its fiscal year ended March 31, about 3.24 million visitors, or 19 percent of Tokyo Disneyland's total, had visited the park more than 30 times, the company said.
"Oriental Land has always been able to lure people back to Disneyland with new rides and special attractions," said Mizuho's Tomaru. "The question is whether it can do the same at DisneySea."
Then there is Universal Studios Japan, operated by a unit of France's Vivendi Universal SA. The theme park, which opened on March 31 in Osaka, says it is on track to exceed its target of 8 million first-year visitors with such Hollywood-inspired attractions as a Jurassic Park-themed water ride and an ET bicycle adventure.
Even with the new competition, Tokyo Disneyland attendance rose from a year earlier in April and May. "With the addition of DisneySea, I expect Disney's share of the theme park market only to increase," Mizuho's Tomaru said.
The park's focus on maritime legends and international cultures rather than the typical Disney kids' cartoons is designed to attract older visitors.
DisneySea features a 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea aquarium and a sail through Arabia on the Sinbad seven voyages ride.
"We hope to attract not only long-time fans but those new to the Disney experience and have them visit many times," said Joji Yasuoka, publicity division manager at Oriental Land.
The company forecast 20.7 million total visitors to the two Tokyo theme parks in the fiscal year that began April 1, and 25 million the following year.
Long lines may be the biggest problem in the opening weeks and visitors may wait up to two hours for popular rides, such as the "Indiana Jones Adventure," said Oriental Land spokeswoman Keiko Namikoshi.
The park has introduced a "fast pass" service that allows visitors to book their rides in advance.
Kida, the housewife who won the three chances to visit the park as an Oriental Land shareholder, a local and a scratch-card winner, says she wants an all-year pass.
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