Tensions are rising over the division of the Caspian Sea and its potential for billions of dollars of oil wealth. Experts say the row may drag on for years.
All sides fear the Caspian could one day become a new zone of instability, replicating the many wars which flamed on the territory of the former Soviet Union.
Lengthy talks are likely to involve Iran's neighbors around the Caspian shores -- Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan -- offering it commercial sweeteners and oil deals to agree with their view of how the waters should be divided.
However, Iran has so far been firm that a Soviet-Iranian treaty on partitioning the waters remains valid.
Daniel Dzurek, head of International Boundary Consultants in Washington, which advises companies and governments on territorial disputes, was not confident of a fast solution.
"Sometimes it is relatively quick, but usually they [disputes] go on for decades," said Dzurek.
The latest bout of tension was sparked last week when Iranian gunboats drove off two vessels from Azerbaijan being used by British Petroleum to explore waters also claimed by Iran. Turkmenistan then chipped in, criticizing Azerbaijan for illegally developing fields it claims too.
Force `unacceptable'
Russian President Vladimir Putin said last Thursday that any use of force was unacceptable, although Azeri President Haydar Aliyev had earlier insisted the dispute would not worsen ties.
However, the Azeri government is also coming under internal pressure to keep exploring in disputed areas after a string of poor drilling results in other zones.
"They [the Azeris] have not had the drilling success they were anticipating and obviously hoped for. I think there is a need in Azerbaijan for someone somewhere to discover some oil," said Julian Lee, senior energy analyst at London-based thinktank the Centre for Global Energy Studies.
"Everything that restricts that exploration activity is detrimental to that," he said.
Kazakh, Russian and Azeri leaders meeting this week at an informal summit in the southern Russian town of Sochi presented a united front on how the sea should be divided up.
Analysts say that unison means Iran is rapidly becoming the odd man out in the dispute, with its insistence that the Caspian is a lake and should be divided up in equal fifths.
Tehran rejection
The other states have backed the idea the Caspian is indeed a sea and that another way of dividing the water should be used. This would give Iran less than a fifth of the waters and of its oil riches, something Tehran has so far vociferously rejected.
Turkmenistan's position has so far not been made clear, although analysts see it as being closer to the Russian, Kazakh and Azeri position than to Iran. Turkmenistan has also backed the idea of a Caspian summit in October in its capital Ashgabat.
The waters are further muddied by the fact that the US is also trying to assert its influence in the Caspian.
Dzurek said the issue could go to the International Court of Justice, although this needed prior agreement from all. The states would also have to agree a judgment would be binding.
But he saw it more likely that the states would try to thrash out some kind of deal among themselves by offering Iran commercial deals to compensate it.
Whatever the solution, the new tensions have cast a cloud over the Caspian as never before, particularly in the south, where the disputed Azeri-Turkmen-Iranian zones are.
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