The thing is, you don't need to like Chen's sense of humor. And, frankly, no one should really care too much about what he says on the topics of economics and finance. He's a reformer, he's a proven administrator, and he's a champion of the little guy who prefers level playing fields. What more could the foreign business community ask for in a president? We're not electing the chairman of the Council for Economic Planning and Development here, you know.
But don't worry, I hear you. Someone with a bit more global-mindedness and who is a bit less self-possessed would be nice. Someone who would not have Washington and Beijing reaching for the hotline every time they deliver a major speech. Then again, how could Chen be any different from the incumbent, and Taiwan's economy seems to have done well under him? And besides, there is a superpower in the world that loves Chen -- the one that gets most of its fuel supplies delivered through the Taiwan Strait. Keeping Tokyo happy should be at least half of the foreign affairs work required of a Taiwan president, and Chen knows it.
Well then, how about someone who can work within the existing system a bit better, just so that the stock market doesn't go up in flames when Chen decides to start settling scores with KMT-run companies? You mean, like he did at the Taipei City Government when he took over in 1994, managing to turn long-time KMT stalwarts into "Taipei-first servants?" Or how about that deal he struck with the KMT-run China Development Bank (then, it was a corporation) to start building the International Financial Center?
Enough already of the cheerleading. Chen has a lot of faults, not the least of which is that he's a member of the DPP, the most common-sensibly challenged party you could ever ask to meet. It is also a big jump from City Hall to the Presidential Office, and Chen does not have enough gray around his temples to qualify for the wizened, chastened-by-life category. He's a populist, and populists tend not to live up to promises made to foreign businesses. Chen, don't forget, backed Taichung County commissioner Liao Yung-lai two years ago in his opposition to German chemical giant Bayer being granted a license to build its plant in Taichung Port (good thing it didn't, by the way, considering the damage that was done to the port by the 921 earthquake).
As you can see, therefore, it's not easy to stand by your rhetoric, even for the foreign business community. Chen, in theory, is a presidential candidate who says he is prepared to do something about all those "concerns" raised in the AmCham and ECCT position papers. But can he be trusted not to go too far? After all, a lot of foreign businesses have done very well over the years by learning to adjust to the KMT's way of doing things.
It's a tough call, indeed, so don't expect me to make it for you. But you want some advice? Go and ask the owners of some small and medium enterprises in Pingtung County what they want in a president, and who they are voting for. And don't believe what you read in the papers.
Anthony Lawrance is the mana-ging editor of the Taipei Times.
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