The National Development Council on Saturday said that the composite index of monitoring indicators could flash a green light for last month, as certain factors in the index, including exports, show signs of revival.
The council said last month’s composite index is likely to continue to grow from November last year, when the index rose to 21 points, up from October’s 20 points, although the November index still flashed a yellow-blue light.
In November, the composite index rose for the first time in five months. In the previous four months, the index stayed at 20 points, also flashing a yellow-blue light.
The council uses a five-light system to describe the state of the economy, with red indicating overheating, yellow-red representing fast growth, green showing stable growth, yellow-blue marking slow growth and blue representing negative growth. An index of 38 to 45 points flashes a red light, while 32 to 37 points show yellow-red, 23 to 31 points get a green light, 17 to 22 points flash yellow-blue and 9 to 16 points get a blue light.
Based on a preliminary assessment, the factors of exports, commercial revenue and manufacturing activity could rise one point, while the share price factor could fall one point.
Other factors in the composite index, such as money supply, industrial production and imports of machinery and electrical equipment, are expected to stay the same for last month.
The council is scheduled to release the latest economic data today.
It said the index for last month could rise to the threshold of 23 points to flash a green light.
The forecast would come on the heels of positive economic data released last week.
On Monday last week, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said Taiwan’s export orders set new highs both for last month and for the whole of last year, helped by the economic recovery in Europe and the US, along with the launch of new tablet computer and smartphone products.
Export orders for last month grew 7.4 percent from a year earlier to US$42.31 billion, rounding out the full-year orders to increase 0.4 percent to US$442.93 billion for last year, the ministry said.
On Friday, the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER, 台灣經濟研究院), forecast the economy would grow 3.17 percent this year, 0.06 percentage points higher than the 3.11 percent it predicted in November, citing an improving global economy. In the past, the composite index was released by the Council for Economic Planning and Development, but its duties have been taken over by the newly inaugurated National Development Council.