The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) yesterday cut its forecast for Taiwan’s GDP growth for the second time this year, citing poor export figures for the first 10 months of the year.
The bank forecast economic growth of 2.18 percent for this year, revising its June projection of 2.36 percent, following a weak export performance despite a surprise surge in export orders last month.
The better-than-expected export order figures were released on Wednesday by the government, which has forecast GDP growth of 2.31 percent. The government forecast, issued in August, is scheduled to be updated on Friday next week.
Taiwanese companies received US$39.59 billion in export orders last month, up 3.28 percent from a year ago and the highest value recorded so far this year, government statistics show.
“The [export order] figure defies the soft custom trade numbers seen in Taiwan” and has “an immaterial impact on our overall assessment,” ANZ said, adding that last month’s figures represented the second consecutive month of decline in exports.
In the first 10 months of the year, Taiwan’s exports edged up 1 percent year-on-year to US$252.75 billion, while imports fell 1.1 percent to US$224.51 billion, statistics showed.
“Taiwan’s export orders can be used to assess the health of the global economy,” ANZ said.