No obvious sign of strong economic recovery: CEPD

BETTER TIMES AHEAD::Stronger growth could be seen next year, with the Economist Intelligence Unit raising its GDP growth forecast to 3.3 percent

By Camaron Kao  /  Staff reporter

Sat, Sep 28, 2013 - Page 13

The index of economic monitoring indicators flashed “yellow-blue” last month as growth momentum remained tepid, the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) said yesterday.

The council uses a five-color spectrum to gauge economic health, with “blue” signaling recession, “green” steady growth and “red” overheating, with “yellow-blue” indicating a transition between recession and growth, and “yellow-red” a transition between growth and overheating.

The score of monitoring indicators — which takes into account both leading and coincident indicators — declined 1 point to 19 points since July because of lower stock market index, the council said.

The index of leading economic indicators, which is used to gauge the nation’s short-term economic outlook, posted its second consecutive increase to 100.49 points last month, up 0.05 percent from July, the council said.

The index of coincident indicators, which reflects monthly economic conditions, declined 0.23 percent to 98.87 points last month, it said.

“There was still no obvious sign of strong recovery as the index of coincident indicators remained flat, while the increase of the index of leading indicators dwindled from January through last month,” Hung Jui-bin (洪瑞彬), director-general of the council’s economic research department, said at a press conference.

Hung said a stronger growth will likely occur next year as the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) upgraded Taiwan’s GDP growth forecast to 3.3 percent next year up from 3 percent.

Former council chairman Chen Pao-chih (陳博志), however, was less optimistic about next year.

“The investment this year is low, and there is no indication of higher growth for next year,” he said.