Economic prospects on the up: survey

By Camaron Kao  /  Staff reporter

Thu, May 16, 2013 - Page 14

The nation’s economic situation this quarter has improved from last quarter, the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) said, citing a German think tank survey.

The World Economic Survey released by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research was conducted between April 1 and April 26. It received responses from 1,178 experts in 125 countries, including 14 from Taiwan.

The survey showed the score for the nation’s economy rose to 4.7 points this quarter from 2.7 last quarter. Using a scale from 1 to 9, the Ifo defines a score of between 1 and 3.5 as “bad,” 3.5 to 6 as “satisfactory” and 6 to 9 as “good.”

Taiwan’s capital spending score this quarter was 5.7, up from 2.9 last quarter, while the score for private consumption increased to 4 from 2.5.

The survey also indicates a better outlook ahead, with the score for the nation’s economic situation over the next six months rising to 8.7 from 8.2 last quarter.

Compared with a poll conducted in January, more experts this time believe that capital investment and private consumption will rise over the next six months, while fewer expect rises in exports and the stock market six months from now, the survey showed.

The Ifo survey shows the New Taiwan dollar may depreciate against the US dollar in the next six months, and consumer prices may rise over the same period.

“The economy is recovering gradually, but uncertainties still remain,” Lin Lih-jen (林麗貞), a council researcher, said during a press conference.

“The European debt crisis, the US’ ‘fiscal cliff’ and quantitative easing policies could still thwart growth momentum and have a negative impact on Taiwan,” she said.

The Munich-based think tank said in the report that prospects for the global economy look more positive, as its world economic climate indicator for the April-to-June period has risen for the second consecutive quarter.

The world economic climate indicator scored 96.8 points this quarter, up from 94.1 last quarter, with rises also seen in the sub-indicators for Asia, Europe and North America, the institute said.

Asia is set lead the global recovery, as the world climate indicator for the region scored 106.1 points this quarter, up from 97.4 points last quarter and higher than the long-term average of 90 points, the survey shows.