The public’s confidence in the nation’s economy and investment environment held relatively stable this month, although ongoing US-China trade tensions weighed on it somewhat, a survey released yesterday by Cathay Financial Holding Co (國泰金控) showed.
More than 23 percent of respondents said that the economy might pick up in the next six months, while more than 39 percent are focusing on its downward trajectory, according to the survey of 12,568 people from Aug. 1 to 7.
Another 31.5 percent hold a neutral outlook, while the remaining 5.6 percent said that they have no opinion.
The survey yielded a sentiment index of minus-14.8, moderately weaker than a month earlier, after US President Donald Trump announced another tariff hike of 10 percent on US$300 billion of Chinese imports.
Taiwan’s economy is quite stable, despite a slowdown revealed by the government’s business climate indicators and GDP growth figures, Cathay Financial said.
The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics on Friday raised its growth forecast for this year from 2.19 percent to 2.46 percent, suggesting a stronger second half of the year after 2.12 percent growth in the in the first six months.
Next month, international technology titans are due to unveil their next-generation devices, spurring inventory demand for firms in their supply chains, including dozens of Taiwanese manufacturers of chips, camera lenses and other critical components.
More than 65 percent of respondents expect GDP growth to reach 2 percent or higher this year, while only 34.3 percent said the pickup would be less than 2 percent, the survey showed.
A majority of those polled — 65.5 percent — expect personal income to hover at current levels, while 17.5 percent expect a rise and another 17 percent fear a decline, it showed.
Talk of a basic wage adjustment accounted for the income growth expected by some respondents, Cathay Financial said.
Wage expectations explain why 27.5 percent of respondents anticipate increasing big-ticket spending over the next six months, while nearly 50 percent expect to keep spending unchanged and only 23.4 percent plan to tighten budgets, the survey showed.
Volatility in local and overseas stock exchanges would lead 21.2 percent of respondents to raise stock holdings, only slightly behind the 23.4 percent who plan to trim positions, it showed.
Most investors seem unaffected by depreciation in the Chinese yuan, as 76.1 percent of respondents said they would keep positions over the next year, while 12.6 percent would trim positions and 11.3 percent would increase holdings, the survey showed.
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