The government-sponsored Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI, 工研院) on Friday cut its growth forecast for the production value of Taiwan’s manufacturing sector for this year to 0.02 percent, citing a weakening global economy amid trade frictions.
Estimating the output of the local manufacturing sector to be NT$19.26 trillion (US$611 billion), the institute’s forecast team downgraded its growth forecast for the year by 1.56 percentage points.
The forecast was lowered largely to reflect a weakening global economy amid trade disputes between the US and China, the team said.
Taiwan’s export-oriented manufacturing sector would suffer further if the US-China trade dispute is not resolved, as global trade would deteriorate, it said.
In addition, business restrictions by Washington are expected to deal a serious blow to Huawei Technologies Co (華為), the second-largest smartphone brand in the world, and many of its Taiwanese suppliers could suffer, the ITRI said.
Among the major Taiwanese suppliers to Huawei are Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (台積電), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, and ASE Technology Holding Co (日月光投資控股), the world’s largest integrated circuit packaging and testing services provider.
The US-China trade dispute would also weaken global consumption and investment, which would undermine confidence in Taiwan’s manufacturing sector, especially the electronics industry, it said.
However, the effect of the trade dispute would be mitigated in Taiwan to some extent by the return of overseas-based Taiwanese companies, it said.
So far this year, 61 Taiwanese firms have committed to returning, bringing back combined investment of NT$310 billion, Ministry of Economic Affairs data showed.
Separately, the government’s “five plus two” industries are expected to create about 30,000 jobs per year over the next three years, National Development Council data showed.
In a forecast on the local job market on Friday, the council said that the most jobs — about 12,000 per year — would be created in the semiconductor sector, one of the five plus two industries.
Among the other industries, smart machinery is expected to create 9,000 jobs per year and biotech 3,000, while the green energy, smart machinery, defense, new agriculture and circular economy sectors would each account for 1,000, the council said.
The digital economy, artificial intelligence and financial technology sectors are expected to each create more than 1,000 jobs per year, it said.
More than 90 percent of five plus two companies need employees with at least a college degree and at least two years experience in related work, the council said.
Some firms have begun overseas recruitment projects, seeking software development and program design engineers, and others to fill job openings, it added.
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