China’s exports last month fell more than expected, while imports rose, official data showed yesterday ahead of high-stakes talks aimed at resolving a trade dispute with the US.
The world’s two leading economies face a possible make-or-break moment when top negotiators meet in Washington this week following months of fraught talks.
US President Donald Trump has upped the ante with plans to more than double tariffs on US$200 billion in Chinese goods tomorrow, the last day of a two-day visit by Chinese Vice Premier Liu He (劉鶴).
Photo: AP
Exports to the US fell 13.2 percent from a year earlier, while imports dropped 25.7 percent, Chinese General Administration of Customs data showed.
The politically sensitive trade surplus with the US remained large, widening to US$21 billion last month from US$20.5 billion in March. Last year it hit a record US$323.3 billion.
Tepid global demand for China’s goods have heightened the risk for Beijing, which posted 6.4 percent economic growth in the first quarter, having decelerated every quarter last year.
China’s exports to the world sank 2.7 percent year-on-year, while imports rose 4 percent, producing a trade surplus of US$13.8 billion.
Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected a 3 percent rise in exports with imports projected to fall 2.1 percent.
“Today’s exports data support our view that there is real risk of double dip in growth, and Beijing cannot afford to stop easing yet,” Nomura Holding Inc economist Lu Ting (陸挺) said in a note.
“With the rapid escalation of the trade conflict with the US, we believe Beijing will likely step up easing measures again,” he wrote.
Beijing has moved to jump-start its cooling economy this year with massive tax cuts and fee reductions, and a targeted reduction in the amount of cash that small and medium-sized banks must hold in reserve announced on Monday.
However, the central bank has yet to cut interest rates.
In the first four months of the year, China’s exports rose only 0.2 percent year-on-year, while imports dropped 2.5 percent, both down from the final quarter of last year.
“Even if a last-minute deal is struck this week to avoid further tariffs, the downbeat prospects for global growth will probably mean that export growth remains subdued,” Capital Economics Ltd economist Julian Evans-Pritchard said.
Data last week showed that China’s factory activity softened last month, with the new export orders subindex rising from March, but remaining in contraction territory.
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