The US and China could reach a trade deal before Friday, as US President Donald Trump’s tariff threat might just be a negotiation tactic, HSBC Global Asset Management Taiwan Ltd (匯豐中華投信) said yesterday.
“I cannot tell how good the chance will be that the two countries reach an agreement during talks this week, but it is possible,” Michael Zheng (鄭宇塵), the Shanghai-based head of investment of HSBC Jintrust Fund Management Co (匯豐晉信基金管理), told a media briefing in Taipei.
“History has shown that American negotiators tend to play tough in a bid to make the other side compromise, which Trump may be doing now as well,” Zheng said.
The most famous instance would be that in 1999, during the negotiations about whether to bring China into the WTO, he said.
US negotiators walked away from the table, claiming that there was no need to continue talking due to divergence, but agreed to make a deal after 36 hours, Zheng said.
“Such a scenario is also possible this time, as a trade deal would benefit both two countries,” he said.
China Vice Premier Liu He (劉鶴) is to travel to the US tomorrow for a new round of trade talks, showing that China is willing to reach a deal, Zheng said.
The White House would also want to reach a deal, as an escalating trade spat would also hurt the US economy, which Trump would not want, as he seeks a second term in office, he added.
However, it is also likely that the negotiations could break down, as Trump is infamous for changing his mind, he said.
It is difficult to forecast Trump’s next move compared with then-US president Bill Clinton in 1999, who was more reasonable, Zheng added.
Besides, there would be a bottom line for Chinese negotiators, who are likely to refuse a deal if the US seeks a right to add new tariffs if it is not satisfied with Chinese enforcement, Zheng said.
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