The nation’s exports might benefit from the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China, a study released by the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院) found.
Thus far, the US has levied tariffs of 10 to 25 percent on US$250 billion of Chinese products, and China has retaliated with tariffs of 5 to 25 percent on US$110 billion of US goods.
Under these conditions, Taiwanese exports to China would decrease by 1.78 percent, but those to the US would increase by 2.16 percent, the CIER study showed.
Overall, exports are estimated to increase by 0.1 percent and GDP to rise by 0.044 percent, the study showed.
A study by IHS Markit showed that US-China trade tensions would only result in a decrease of 0.1 percent in economic growth for each nation, which in turn would have a limited effect of 0.03 to 0.04 percent of GDP in Taiwan, the Bureau of Foreign Trade said last month.
In the first quarter, the nation’s exports fell 4.4 percent from a year earlier, parallel with positive growth of 1.6 percent recorded in the second half of last year, data from the Ministry of Finance showed.
Exports to the US in the first quarter increased 20.4 percent year-on-year and exports to Japan increased 4.9 percent, whereas exports to China fell 11.2 percent, those to Southeast Asia fell 12.5 percent and those to the EU fell 1 percent.
Electrical products and electronics, optical instruments, machinery, non-organic chemicals, minerals and plastics have seen the greatest decline in exports, the bureau said.
Taiwanese products such as smartphones and laptops, which are not on the US tariff list, create little negative impact when exported to China, the bureau said, adding that supply chains for Apple Inc should also face minimal impact.
The trade dispute is leading Taiwanese companies to consider the higher stakes of investment in China and making them consider strategic relocation — whether to move back to Taiwan or move to Southeast Asia, the bureau added.
The Ministry of Economic Affairs has established a three-year program with tax, land and labor incentives to help Taiwanese companies return to Taiwan.
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