India’s government is increasingly looking to the central bank to help boost a flagging economy before an election that is to begin on Thursday next week, and new Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das is turning out to be a willing partner.
He is set to deliver a second consecutive 25 basis-point interest rate cut this week, most economists in a Bloomberg survey said, reversing two hikes made by former governor Urjit Patel last year.
Since taking over at the bank in December last year, Das has relaxed restrictions on weak state-run banks to help spur borrowing, and allowed lenders to restructure loans to small and medium-sized businesses that are in default.
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A bank panel is also considering a government request to transfer more of the bank’s excess capital to the state.
An increase would help plug a widening budget deficit, allowing Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to fund billions of rupees in spending to rural workers, a key voting bloc.
“The new governor is seen as more amenable to the government’s wish to keep policy loose and boost growth,” said Shilan Shah, senior India economist at Capital Economics Ltd in Singapore. “Headline inflation is low and that gives the RBI room to cut, which, coming as it would just before an election, should provide a boost to sentiment.”
Lower food prices have put a lid on inflation, and even though price gains accelerated to 2.6 percent in February from 2 percent in January, they remain well below the bank’s medium-term target of 4 percent.
The RBI expects inflation to stay below that threshold until the end of the year.
While the core inflation measure — which strips out volatile food and fuel prices — has been sticky above 5 percent, it might also start to inch lower as the economy slows, providing the RBI with more justification to cut interest rates.
Benign inflation has brought into sharp focus India’s high real rates of interest, which economists say can hold back investment growth in the economy.
Private consumption has already taken a beating on the back of a crisis in the shadow banking sector, and high-frequency data point to a bumpy ride for the economy ahead.
On Monday, the bank took another step to help spur lending, tweaking rules relating to the disclosure of bad loan divergences at banks, which would support lenders struggling to contain stressed assets.
The economy needs to have grown just above 6 percent in the January-to-March quarter to meet the government’s estimate of 7 percent expansion for the fiscal year that ended on Sunday. That is well below the more than 8 percent growth seen in the April-to-June quarter last year.
“Our India current activity indicator is suggesting some slowdown in the near term,” said Prachi Mishra, chief India economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc in Mumbai. “Growth in India based on the current activity indicator was reported at 6.6 percent in February, down from 6.7 percent in January, and almost 1 percentage point lower than the early 2018 pace.”
Data yesterday showed a loss of momentum in manufacturing activity.
The Nikkei India Manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for last month fell to 52.6, the lowest in six months, on the back of softer sales.
Factory orders and production expanded at the slowest pace since September last year, while job creation eased to an eight-month low. A reading above 50 signals expansion.
The slowdown is a setback for Modi, who was swept into office in 2014 on the back of pledges to reform the economy and create 10 million jobs each year.
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