Global smartphone shipments this year could slide 3.3 percent year-on-year to 1.41 billion units as demand stagnates amid growing uncertainty from US-China trade tensions and longer mobile phone replacement cycles, TrendForce Corp (集邦科技) forecast yesterday.
“The decline in shipments this year could worsen to 5 percent annually if the trade environment continues to overshadow the outlook for mobile phone sales,” the Taipei-based researcher said.
Samsung Electronics Co is this year expected to defend its top position by capturing a 20 percent market share, thanks to extensive coverage of low and mid-range mobile phones, the researcher said.
Apple Inc is expected to lose its No. 2 ranking — slipping to No. 3 — to China’s Huawei Technologies Inc (華為), according to TrendForce’s projections.
Huawei’s shipments could increase 9.76 percent to 225 million units, from 205 million units last year, fueled by growth in emerging markets, TrendForce said.
That would help Huawei’s market share expand to 16 percent, surpassing Apple’s 13 percent, the researcher said.
However, the extent to which the US-China trade spat affects production and shipments from Huawei, China’s biggest handset maker, should be monitored, it added.
Apple’s iPhone shipments this year are likely to drop 12.09 percent to 189 million units, from 215 million units last year, it said.
The decline was likely due to longer smartphone replacement cycles, Apple’s pricing strategy and weak sales in China, it added.
Last year, Apple saw iPhone shipments shrink 3 percent annually, as demand from China decreased by 10 million units due to high prices for new models and a ban on sales of older models due to the Qualcomm Inc lawsuit, it said.
China’s Xiaomi Corp (小米), Oppo Mobile Telecommunications Corp (歐珀移動) and Vivo Electronics Corp (維沃移動通信) should maintain their rankings of No. 4, No. 5, and No. 6 respectively, the researcher said.
Xiaomi’s shipments are expected to increase 4.88 percent year-on-year to 129 million units, thanks to the launch of sub-brands, TrendForce said, but added that the increase in shipments would be far less than last year’s 32 percent rise to 123 million units.
OPPO’s shipments are expected to see somewhat flat growth with 120 million units, while Vivo could see shipments fall to below 100 million units, from 104 million units last year, due to weakness in the home market, TrendForce said.
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