The nation’s business indicators turned “yellow-blue” last month after three straight months of expansion, as the index of producers’ shipments weakened slightly, the National Development Council (NDC) said yesterday.
“The economy remains on course for a stable recovery, although the pace lost some steam last month,” NDC research director Wu Ming-huei (吳明蕙) said.
The council has not spotted signs of a downturn as other bellwethers continued to point upward, although sales of computer and optical devices turned out to be less than satisfactory, Wu said.
The council uses a five-color system to reflect the state of the economy, with “green” indicating steady growth and “red” suggesting overheating, while “blue” signals a recession. Dual-color signals mean the economy is changing gears.
A higher comparison base last year likely accounted for the slowdown, as seen in the poor shipments of basic metal products, but continued improvement in global trade should lend support to exports, Wu said.
While the monitoring system shed 1 point to 22 last month, the index of leading indicators, used to gauge the economic outlook in the coming six months, gained 0.27 percent to 101.78, increasing for the sixth straight month, Wu said.
The council’s index of coincident indicators, which mirrors the current economic status, grew 0.53 percent to 103.18, as all seven subindices showed positive cyclical movements.
The Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February might stimulate consumer spending, Wu said, as most Taiwanese companies would issue year-end bonuses.
However, the local market’s ongoing correction could weigh on consumer confidence, with the index shedding 0.11 points to 86.05 this month, the National Central University’s monthly survey showed.
The subindex on stock investment registered the biggest drop of 1 point to 104.2, after the TAIEX saw recurrent pullbacks this month, the survey found.
The gauge on inflation expectations shed 0.25 points to 52.05 amid stable consumer prices, it said.
The subindex on the job market outlook came in at 105.2 after the unemployment rate last month fell to the lowest level for the same month in 17 years.
The subindex on household income gained 0.25 points to 84.95, the survey said.
The sub-index on purchase of durable goods picked up 0.25 points to 90.2, while the reading on the economy rose 0.2 points to 79.7, it said.
Confidence values greater than 100 indicate optimism and values lower than the threshold suggest pessimism.
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