While most London-based bankers are brushing up on their German to prepare for a move to Frankfurt post-Brexit, senior staff at French investment banks expect to say “Oui” to government pressure to bring jobs home to Paris.
Most international banks in London have declared where they will move their European business in the event of a “hard” Brexit, in which the UK would give up access to the single market, including financial passporting rights.
Frankfurt is by far the favorite. European giant Deutsche Bank, for example, in April said that up to 4,000 UK jobs could move to Germany.
Although French banks have been wavering about their plans, the bankers who work for them in London believe pressure from the government of French President Emmanuel Macron, a former investment banker, makes a Paris move almost certain.
“The Macron administration is really pushing for the French banks to move some of us to Paris, setting up international schools there and talking tax breaks,” a senior London-based banker at one of the three main French investment banks said.
LIFE IN PARIS
“Personally, I am preparing for life in Paris. Unless we get a [soft] Brexit deal, it’s almost inevitable,” he said, asking not to be named because, like others interviewed for this story, he was not authorized to speak to the media.
That sentiment was echoed by a second London-based source from another top bank.
“Most of the Americans are moving to Frankfurt and a lot of them are very advanced in their plans, so there’s a lot of pressure for us,” he said.
A source at the French Ministry of Finance said there was no undue pressure on the banks, but added that the government was keen for domestic lenders to base more jobs in France.
“This government is doing a lot in terms of attractiveness like getting rid of the wealth tax. We want the banks to live up to promises they have made; we want them to make a concrete gesture,” one ministry source said.
French banks feel they can afford to wait until the details around Brexit become clearer, because they already have EU licenses through their Paris headquarters, unlike their US counterparts, which conduct nearly all of their European investment banking business out of London.
THE BIG THREE
France’s two biggest investment banks in London — BNP Paribas and Societe Generale — have not set out firm plans, though Societe Generale CEO Frederic Oudea in June said the bank could move 300 to 400 out of 2,000 investment banking jobs to Paris.
Credit Agricole, the third-biggest, has moved its 10-person European government bonds trading platform to Paris, but a source at the bank said the move was not related to Brexit.
All three declined to comment.
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