The attacks in Catalonia might hit tourist numbers, but the experience of other European nations hit by Islamic violence suggests it will likely be brief, industry experts say.
Cancelations, early departures, fewer reservations — the effects of a terror attack on an European city can last from three to six months, tourism professionals said.
However, the effect is dissipating quicker and quicker, they added.
“The duration of the effect is shortening as attacks become commonplace,” said Jean-Pierre Mas, head of Entreprises du Voyage, an association of French travel agencies.
However, the effects can be greater “if there are repeated attacks in the same place,” he added.
Didier Arino, director-general of the Paris-based Protourisme consultancy, agrees.
Where there are repeated attacks in the same city, it can end up “appearing dangerous,” he said.
That was the case with Paris, which was hit by a series of attacks in 2015 — including the attacks on Nov. 13 on multiple locations in and around Paris, including the shootings at the Bataclan concert venue.
The nation’s economic output dropped by 0.1 percentage point in the final quarter of that year.
However, it is difficult to quantify the overall effects of an attack.
The number of foreign tourists visiting Britain rose by 7 percent in June from the same month last year, despite three vehicle attacks in March and June in London, the nation’s top tourist destination.
“The stronger the image of a destination, the more the impact will be limited,” Arino said.
The challenge then becomes for a city to limit the damage to that image.
Arino recommended the use of social networks, in particular the posting of selfies that encourage a “sense of belonging.”
That is what the French Mediterranean city of Marseille did after the attack on July 14 last year when an attacker drove a truck into crowds celebrating France’s Bastille Day.
However, what does not help is refusing to acknowledge the problem, Arino said, adding: “It doesn’t do any good to say: ‘Our destination is safe.’”
For Asian tourists in particular, security is a top issue, Mas said — and attacks often had a distorting effect on perceptions.
France saw the number of foreign tourists drop by 2 million last year to 83 million, proving a drag on the economy, as tourism accounts for about 8 percent of the total.
“Clients coming from faraway countries like China and the United States have a heightened sensitivity concerning the threat of terrorism and see the situation in a more global context,” Berlin’s tourism office spokesman Christian Taenzler said. “They pose the question ‘Am I still going to travel to Europe?’”
The answer is often yes.
Despite the attack on Berlin’s Christmas market last year, the number of Chinese visitors to Germany rose by 15 percent in the first three months of this year, while the number of US visitors rose by 6 percent, according Germany’s foreign tourism promotion agency.
The World Tourism Organization last month said that international arrivals to Europe rebounded by 6 percent in the first four months of the year “as confidence returned to some destinations that were impacted by security incidents.”
Arino said the effect would be mitigated by the fact that the Spanish economy is growing fast.
“The country is in such a growth dynamic” that the effect will be “less visible,” he said.
However, tourism accounts for 11 percent of Spain’s economy and has been a key component in helping fuel the nation’s rebound.
Barcelona, the top city in international tourism in the world’s second-most visited country, according to market research firm Euromonitor International, welcomed 7.6 million tourists last year.
Most of the those visitors came from Britain, France and Italy.
Travel industry heavyweight TUI Group said its clients in Spain were not seeking to go home early.
“For the moment, we’ve fielded questions from several clients there, but no requests for an early departure,” TUI spokeswoman Susanne Stuenckel said.
She was confident that the attacks would not affect reservations in Spain.
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