The government’s business monitoring system flashed a “yellow-blue” signal again last month, unchanged from May, indicating the economy is stalling, the National Development Council said yesterday.
The total score of the monitoring system stood at 20 last month.
Export volume showed improvement, while imports of electrical equipment and machinery weakened slightly, the council said.
A “yellow-blue” signal indicates that the economy is moving away from a downturn, but at a very slow pace, researcher Wu Ming-hui (吳明蕙) said.
The arrival of high sales season for electronic components could lend support to the nation’s export-focused economy and lower the chance of it worsening, Wu said.
Major international technology firms are due to showcase their next-generation devices in the fall, providing inventory-building demand for firms in their supply chain.
The council’s leading indicator, a gauge aimed at foretelling the economic landscape in three to six months time, picked up 0.18 percent last month from May, the council said in its montly report.
According to revised data, the increase first took place in March and has been sustained for the past four months, affirming a slow recovery, Wu said.
The gauges on business confidence, building permits, the TAIEX and employment accession rates all saw positive cyclical movements, the report said.
However, the book-to-bill ratios of semiconductor firms, cash flows and export orders remained in negative territory, the report said.
While the high technology sales season bodes well for exports, there is heightened uncertainty over the global economy because of the US presidential election and the “Brexit” vote, Wu said.
A potential increase in protectionism could raise barriers for cross-border trade and hurt the global economy, Wu said.
The coincident indicators, which seek to mirror the current economic state, edged up 0.51 percent to 99.98 last month, the fourth consecutive month of increase based on revised data, the report said.
Component indexes for producers’ shipments, electric power consumption, industrial production and sales of trade and food services all moved up, while the non-agricultural employment sub-index declined.
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