Sun, Jul 03, 2016 - Page 14 News List

S&P closes at best since last year

DISASTER AVERTED:US stocks’ buoyancy and central banks’ commitment to help markets navigate uncertainty helped equities rally from a post-Brexit drop to highs


Every precaution taken against disaster by US investors this year was on display in the stock market this week.

Short sales that earlier reached the highest level since the financial crisis were covered, while bearish options bets were closed.

Meanwhile, defensive industries such as consumer staples and utilities powered the S&P 500 to its best week in seven months. When it was over, the two-day trauma that followed UK voters’ decision to secede from the EU was all, but erased.

The S&P 500 surged 3.2 percent to 2,102.95, including three consecutive daily gains of more than 1 percent, something that has happened only two other times since October 2011.

At Friday’s close, the index was less than 0.5 percent from its level before the UK referendum.

“There was a two-day period where people were freaking out, but at the end of the day, people did hedge going in,” Macro Risk Advisors head derivatives strategist Pravit Chintawongvanich said by telephone.

“The fact that people were aware that this could happen, that limited the severity of the initial sell off,” Chintawongvanich added.

Evidence that short covering helped fuel the subsequent advance was visible in the performance of a Goldman Sachs Group Inc basket of shares with the most bearish bets. The index surged 5.2 percent on the rally’s second day, the most since 2009.

Traders said a decline in the CBOE Volatility Index on Monday, when the market fell almost 2 percent, signaled investors cashed in on Brexit hedges. VIX futures volume had surged 40 percent in the days leading up to the vote.

The precautions led to a wild ride on the VIX. After the option-derived measure of stress surged 49 percent the day after the vote, it posted the biggest weekly decline in history.

The VIX and the S&P 500, which move in opposite directions 80 percent of the time, on Monday fell together by the biggest degree since August last year.

“The move out of Brexit, people were a little bit more prepared for than they were last fall” when China’s devaluation rocked the market, Russell Rhoads, director of education for CBOE’s options institution, said on Monday.

“You do have people with positions in place that they’re ready to take off. With people taking off the long put options, it’s pushing down implied volatility and resulting in a lower VIX,” Rhoads added.

Automated funds emerged as big winners. Commodity trading advisers headed into the referendum with bearish bets on US equities, allowing them to make money amid the turbulence, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, global market strategist in the multi-asset allocation team of JPMorgan Chase & Co, wrote in a note on Friday.

The funds quickly reversed to a long position, adding to their gains and in turn fueling the equity rally, Panigirtzoglou said.

While every industry in the S&P 500 rose over the five days, gains were dominated by industries least tied to economic growth: healthcare, utilities and telephone companies rallied at least 4 percent.

With price-earnings ratios of 23 for staples and 19.7 for utilities, both groups are more expensive than the benchmark and at least 20 percent greater than their five-year averages.

The buoyancy from US stocks helped investors avoid the fate of past corrections induced by overseas concerns.

While some analysts predicted a repeat of the August rout, central banks’ commitment to help markets navigate the turbulence lifted equities.

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