SinoPac Financial Holdings Co (永豐金控) yesterday forecast that the nation’s economy would gradually recover from this year’s slump to grow at 2.45 percent next year.
While the value of export orders this year is expected to decline 9.6 percent annually to dip below US$37.5 billion, the figure is anticipated to rebound to above US$40 billion next year, as demand begins to recover in Europe and the US, Sinopac Financial Holdings chief economist Jack Huang (黃蔭基) told an economic forum in Taipei.
However, a continued correction in the domestic housing market and the rise of China’s ‘red supply chain’ would continue to limit the nation’s economic growth, Huang said.
Political uncertainties over next month’s presidential and legislative elections would also affect the stock market, he said.
“We foresee the TAIEX would hit a low point at 7,900 points in the first quarter next year, and reach its annual ceiling at 9,500 points in the third quarter, the peak period for companies’ earnings,” Huang said.
The central bank also might lower its policy rates by half a basis point to about 1.625 to boost exports, which could lead to the New Taiwan dollar depreciating more in the first half of next year, before strengthening in the second half, he said.
Even so, the nation’s industrial landscape could see sweeping changes amid a persistent slump in global demand, with investments shifting toward the biotechnology and green energy sectors, while the financial, technology, and traditional industries begin to lose favor with investors, Huang said.
Investors might consider technology sector bluechips, such as shares for leading semiconductor, industrial computer, and upstream optoelectronic suppliers, said Telan Chen (陳德蘭), senior vice president of Taiwan equity research at SinoPac Securities Investment Service Co (永豐投顧).
Other viable investments include textile and shoe makers with production bases in Vietnam, which are poised to benefit from Hanoi’ inclusion in regional trade blocs, and companies that are well positioned to capture opportunities from China’s lifting of its one-child policy, and its drive toward industrial automation, renewable energy, and environmental protection, Chen said.
“Next year will mark the beginning of a new order across markets worldwide,” Huang said.
With its “one belt, one road” and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank initiatives, as well as the inclusion of the Chinese yuan into the IMF’s special drawing rights reserve, China has become a superpower, Huang said.
He also expects major economies’ monetary policies to begin diverging from the US’ footsteps, citing as one example that the EU is expected to step up quantitative easing measures to curb deflation once the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates.
Stephen Garrett, a 27-year-old graduate student, always thought he would study in China, but first the country’s restrictive COVID-19 policies made it nearly impossible and now he has other concerns. The cost is one deterrent, but Garrett is more worried about restrictions on academic freedom and the personal risk of being stranded in China. He is not alone. Only about 700 American students are studying at Chinese universities, down from a peak of nearly 25,000 a decade ago, while there are nearly 300,000 Chinese students at US schools. Some young Americans are discouraged from investing their time in China by what they see
Taiwan Transport and Storage Corp (TTS, 台灣通運倉儲) yesterday unveiled its first electric tractor unit — manufactured by Volvo Trucks — in a ceremony in Taipei, and said the unit would soon be used to transport cement produced by Taiwan Cement Corp (TCC, 台灣水泥). Both TTS and TCC belong to TCC International Holdings Ltd (台泥國際集團). With the electric tractor unit, the Taipei-based cement firm would become the first in Taiwan to use electric vehicles to transport construction materials. TTS chairman Koo Kung-yi (辜公怡), Volvo Trucks vice president of sales and marketing Johan Selven, TCC president Roman Cheng (程耀輝) and Taikoo Motors Group
MAJOR DROP: CEO Tim Cook, who is visiting Hanoi, pledged the firm was committed to Vietnam after its smartphone shipments declined 9.6% annually in the first quarter Apple Inc yesterday said it would increase spending on suppliers in Vietnam, a key production hub, as CEO Tim Cook arrived in the country for a two-day visit. The iPhone maker announced the news in a statement on its Web site, but gave no details of how much it would spend or where the money would go. Cook is expected to meet programmers, content creators and students during his visit, online newspaper VnExpress reported. The visit comes as US President Joe Biden’s administration seeks to ramp up Vietnam’s role in the global tech supply chain to reduce the US’ dependence on China. Images on
New apartments in Taiwan’s major cities are getting smaller, while old apartments are increasingly occupied by older people, many of whom live alone, government data showed. The phenomenon has to do with sharpening unaffordable property prices and an aging population, property brokers said. Apartments with one bedroom that are two years old or older have gained a noticeable presence in the nation’s six special municipalities as well as Hsinchu county and city in the past five years, Evertrust Rehouse Co (永慶房產集團) found, citing data from the government’s real-price transaction platform. In Taipei, apartments with one bedroom accounted for 19 percent of deals last