The El Nino that is forecast to become one of the strongest ever recorded is expected to cut the number of tropical cyclones to impact Australia in the coming season, potentially reducing disruption for iron ore exporters to energy producers.
Australia’s northwestern region, which includes Port Hedland, the world’s largest bulk-export terminal that is used by BHP Billiton Ltd and Fortescue Metals Group Ltd, is forecast to get fewer cyclones, according to a statement from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.
“You would hedge towards having less downtime due to tropical cyclones,” Andrew Watkins, manager of climate prediction services at the Melbourne-based bureau, said by telephone.
“Hopefully, there’ll be less downtime in that region for the ports and for the rigs, because it’s a very expensive course of action to shut them down,” he said.
On average, the November-to-April season in Australia includes 11 cyclones, of which four typically cross the coast, according to Watkins. El Nino’s impact on the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to trim the number of cyclones that form through April next year, he said.
Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second-largest iron ore exporter, said shipments fell 12 percent in the first quarter of this year compared with the previous three months, partly on the impact of Tropical Cyclone Olwyn in March. Production in its Western Australia mines fell 6 percent over the same period because of the wet weather, it said in an April filing.
Apache Corp, an energy producer with oil and gas assets in Australia, in March evacuated non-essential personnel from offshore operations as a result of Cyclone Olwyn.
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