Taiwanese contract notebook makers are likely to continue to face tough challenges in the second half of this year, as Microsoft Corp’s Windows 10 operating system might not significantly spur notebook replacement demand, the Market Intelligence and Consulting Institute (MIC, 產業情報研究所) said yesterday.
“Although Windows 10 is now used by more than 75 million PCs just one month after the new operating system hit the market, most users upgraded to it for free. The new operating system has limited benefit to notebook computer makers,” MIC senior manager Charles Chou (周士雄) told reporters on the sidelines of a technology forum in Taipei.
In addition, the delayed launch of Intel Corp’s Skylake processor also stalled computer purchases, Chou said.
“The outlook for the PC industry in the second half of this year is unlikely to be better than that in the first half,” Chou said.
The MIC expects global PC shipments — desktops and notebooks included — to fall 7.5 percent to 281.42 million units this year from 304.1 million units last year, he said.
He said the demand for commercial desktops and notebooks was relatively stable compared with consumer PC market this year.
The demand for consumer PCs is also negatively affected by the increasing penetration of smartphones and tablet devices, Chou said.
“Consumer behavior has changed drastically over the past few years. To some consumers, desktops or notebooks are no longer necessary as some of the functions can be replaced by smartphones or tablets,” he added.
Chou said he foresees the growth drivers for the consumer PC market in the near future to be high-priced gaming PCs and low-priced notebooks, such as Chromebooks, while mid-priced PCs continue facing competition from handheld devices.
MIC expects the replacement demand to emerge next year following the launch of the Skylake processor.
“This means Taiwanese contract notebook makers might not experience severe decline in shipments in the first and second quarter of next year because of Skylake,” Chou said.
The MIC foresees global PC shipments to drop 1.9 percent to 276.03 million units next year from this year’s estimate of 281.42 million units, Chou said.
Chou said the scale of annual decline next year is smaller than this year’s 7.5 percent because of a lower comparison base and the replacement demand driven by the Skylake processor and Windows 10.
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