The global penetration rate of LCD TVs with ultra-high-definition, or 4K, screens is expected to rise to about 13.3 percent next year, which would be a twofold increase from this year’s 6.2 percent, Taipei-based industry watcher the Market Intelligence and Consulting Institute (MIC, 資策會產業情報研究所) said on Friday.
Total shipments of 4K TVs this year increased by seven-and-a-half-times to 12,920 units from last year’s 1,705 units, thanks to strong sales of 48-inch or bigger ultra-high-resolution flat-screen TVs, MIC director Chris Hung (洪春暉) told a news conference on Friday.
“I foresee that more affordable large 4K TVs will be launched in the global market next year, which would double the shipments of 4K flat-screen TVs to 28,359 units from this year,” Hung said.
He said that since 32-inch flat-panel TVs have a narrower gross margin, many panel makers have shifted their focus to producing larger panels and raising marketing efforts on large TVs.
“The sales for 40-inch or above LCD TVs will account for 55 percent of global panel shipments next year, up 6 percentage points from this year’s 49 percent,” Hung said, citing the MIC forecast.
Hung said the main growth driver for emerging markets, excluding China, would still be 32-inch or smaller LCD TVs, because of lower consumer purchasing power in emerging markets.
MIC forecast that LCD TVs of less than 34 inches would account for 44.1 percent of global shipments next year, down slightly from this year’s 46.6 percent due to the increasing demand for larger TVs.
Hung said the MIC is optimistic about the outlook for Taiwanese panel makers for the first half of next year, even though China is developing its own flat-panel industry.
“So far, Taiwanese panel makers’ orders are good and rising demand for larger panels should also help Taiwanese companies’ performance,” Hung said, adding that supply and demand in the flat-panel industry is expected to be stable in the first half of next year.
However, Hung said that whether robust demand would continue and if the Chinese market would have excess capacity are the main uncertainties for the industry in the second half next year.
Separately, MIC PC industry consultant Charles Chou (周士雄) said he foresees affordable notebooks becoming the key product supporting the PC industry next year, citing positive market reactions to Google Inc’s Chromebook and Asustek Computer Inc’s (華碩) EeeBook X251.
“Overall, the PC industry will be flat or even decline next year, except affordable notebooks may drive the sales in educational markets, but companies who have been receiving subsidies from Intel Corp for their affordable notebooks would encounter cost down issues once Intel cancel the subsidies,” Chou said.
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