Taiwan’s economy is growing at a steady but tepid pace, despite the nation’s monitoring indicators score dropping three points last month from September, the National Development Council (NDC) said yesterday.
The monitoring indicators score — which takes into account both leading and coincident indicators — fell to 24 points last month because of lower growth for the stock closing price and exports compared with a year earlier and a lower manufacturing composite indicator last month, the council’s data showed.
The declining exports were because of lower prices for gasoline and diesel, while the lower manufacturing composite indicator last month was due to companies taking a more conservative stance after the adulterated oil issue, council Director Wu Ming-huei (吳明蕙) told a press conference.
As for the growth of the stock closing price last month, Wu said the reading was 8,819 points last month, a relatively high level in Taiwan, and the lower annual growth was partly due to a higher base level a year earlier, when the stock closing price was 8,366 points.
In September, the stock closing price was 9,229 points, up from 8,193 points the previous year, according to the council.
Regardless, monitoring indicators still flashed “green” last month for the ninth consecutive month, the council’s data showed.
The council uses a five-color spectrum to categorize the nation’s economic health, with “blue” signaling recession, “yellow-blue” indicates a transition between recession and growth, “green” steady growth, “yellow-red” represents a transition between growth and boom and “red” indicating a boom.
“Taiwan’s economic recovery is highly affected by global conditions and it is unlikely for us to see rapid growth because of uncertainties in China, Europe and Japan” Wu said.
However, the risk for Taiwan’s economy was reduced by Japan delaying its sales tax hike and Europe deciding to lower interest rates, Wu said.
The council maintained its forecast that the economy will be better next year on the back of higher global economic growth, Wu said.
Citing a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit this month, if oil prices remain at current levels next year, global economic growth could rise by 0.3 percent, Wu said.
The index of leading economic indicators, which is used to gauge the nation’s short-term economic outlook, posted its eighth straight decline last month, falling to 99.68 points, down 0.18 percent from 99.87 points the previous month, the report said.
However, from March through last month, the index declined by less than 1 percent, the council said.
The index of coincident indicators, which reflects monthly economic conditions, reported its 15th consecutive increase, rising 0.15 percent to 101.66 points last month from 101.5 points the previous month, the council said.
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