Strong exports saw the nation’s GDP expand at the fastest pace over the past seven quarters in spite of the negative impact of the latest food scare, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) said yesterday.
The economy grew 3.78 percent year-on-year in the July-to-September period. The increase was also 0.16 percentage points higher from the 3.62 percent growth forecast made by the DGBAS in August.
On a quarterly basis, GDP increased by 0.37 percentage points from 3.41 percent three months earlier, the agency said in its latest report.
The DGBAS attributed the economic performance last quarter — the strongest growth since the fourth quarter — to solid growth in the output sector (including both merchandise and services exports), which rose 7.3 percent year-on-year, up 1.51 percentage points from the agency’s forecast of 5.79 percent.
Merchandise exports surged 6.68 percent from the third quarter last year, driven mainly by strong shipments of electronics products amid the launch of Apple Inc’s iPhone 6.
Services exports also climbed on the back of a 21.78 percent year-on-year growth in inbound tourism during the period, the report said.
However, the ongoing cooking oil scandal caused food and beverage sales to slow to 2.55 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, compared with the 4.58 percent increase recorded three months earlier.
“The tainted oil scandal last month, centered on Chang Guann Co (強冠企業), dragged down private consumption by NT$2.4 billion [US$78.75 million], which cut GDP growth in the third quarter by 0.05 percentage points,” DGBAS senior executive officer Jasmine Mei (梅家瑗) told a press conference.
Last quarter, private consumption was dented not only by the adverse impact from the food scare, but also rising consumer prices, in particular the higher cost of dining out, the DGBAS said.
As the cooking oil scandal spread, with food giant Ting Hsin International Group (頂新國際集團) becoming embroiled, Mei said the issue may continue affecting the nation’s economic growth this quarter.
Capital formation — which includes public and private-sector investment in fixed assets — for last quarter rose 7.89 percent from a year earlier, the report said. The figure followed an annual increase of 6.9 percent the previous quarter and was higher than the DGBAS’ estimate of 7.79 percent, thanks to new investments by airlines and semiconductor companies, it said.
Overall, the economy continued to gain steam last quarter and the DGBAS may further revise full-year economic growth later this month, said Tony Phoo (符銘財), a Taipei-based economist at Standard Chartered Bank.
“We believe the economy is on track to record its best annual growth performance in past three years in 2014,” Phoo said in a research note.
Hong Kong-based ANZ Research senior economist Raymond Yeung (楊宇霆) expects the central bank to continue to closely monitor capital flows and manage market liquidity via the issuance of negotiable certificates of deposit, with the earliest timing for an interest rate hike to be in the first quarter next year.
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