China’s exports and imports both rose more than expected last month, customs data showed yesterday, in a positive signal for the world’s second-largest economy, but analysts warned that fundamentals remained weak.
The nation’s trade surplus more than doubled year-on-year to US$31 billion as exports rose 15.3 percent to US$213.7 billion, the General Administration of Customs announced, while imports climbed 7 percent to US$182.7 billion.
The rise in exports accelerated from August’s 9.4 percent and was ahead of the median forecast of 12.5 percent in a poll of 15 economists by Dow Jones Newswires.
The survey had predicted a fall of 2.4 percent in imports, matching a surprise decline in August.
The positive figures are the latest contradictory indicator for China’s economy, a key driver of global growth.
Customs spokesman Zheng Yuesheng (鄭躍聲) attributed the improvement to major economies recovering and external demand strengthening.
“The good momentum is expected to continue in the fourth quarter,” he added.
However, analysts urged caution.
Capital Economics China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard said that while import growth rebounded, “this should not be taken as a sign that domestic demand growth is turning a corner.”
“The strength seems to have been driven by a surge in imports for processing and re-export,” he added. “As such, it mostly reflects a brighter export outlook rather than a pick-up in domestic demand.”
The improvement was expected to prove “short-lived,” he said, citing oversupply in the struggling property sector and “subdued commodity demand.”
The expansion in exports might be linked to the launch of Apple Inc’s new iPhone 6, Nomura analysts said in a research note, adding “external demand faces a high level of uncertainty due to weakening European growth and recent geopolitical risks.”
Last month’s import growth was “much higher than expected,” they said, but cautioned that domestic demand “remained weak.”
Recent reports have suggested expansion in China — which stood at 7.7 percent last year, maintaining its slowest pace in more than a decade — is weakening even after authorities took limited stimulatory measures.
Industrial production growth slowed sharply in August to its lowest level for more than five years, official data said last month, while house prices have fallen for five consecutive months.
Officials are targeting economic growth of “about 7.5 percent” this year, the same as last year’s objective.
The goal is normally exceeded, but senior officials have repeatedly sought to play down its significance this year.
Beijing-based HSBC economist Ma Xiaoping (馬小平) said that property remained “the biggest risk area in terms of internal demand.”
Last month’s trade surplus was lower than August’s record US$49.8 billion, and also came in below expectations of US$42 billion.
In the third quarter, exports rose 12.8 percent year-on-year while imports crept up 0.9 percent, customs said without giving totals.
For the first three quarters, China recorded a total trade surplus of US$231.6 billion, the statement said, up 37.8 percent year-on-year.
Exports climbed 5.1 percent over the nine-month period to US$1.7 trillion, while imports rose 1.3 percent to US$1.46 trillion.
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