Fri, Oct 03, 2014 - Page 15 News List

Analysts say HK protests could hurt its economy


A pro-democracy demonstrator uses her smartphone as she sits on a lane divider at a closed off street in Central district, Hong Kong, yesterday.

Photo: EPA

Shops in Hong Kong have closed and the stock market has plunged, but protesters are gambling their agitation for greater democracy will pay off by preserving institutions that made this former British colony a profitable asset to China.

The impact on Hong Kong’s key industries of finance and trade is limited so far.

However, economists warn Hong Kong’s appeal to global companies might erode if they start to think protests will become more frequent — or if they end in a violent crackdown.

In the latest blow, Chinese authorities on Wednesday suspended group tours to Hong Kong, cutting a critical source of revenue to its growing travel industry.

Protests erupted after the Beijing government announced candidates in the first direct election of the territory’s chief executive in 2017 would have to be approved by a panel dominated by business leaders allied with China.

That fueled unease. Hong Kong is losing its special status despite a promise of a “high degree of autonomy” when the colony returned to Chinese sovereignty in 1997.

Protesters also are frustrated at the growing income gap between ordinary people and a wealthy elite.

“I hope that the Hong Kong people can understand that sometimes we need short-term disturbances to draw the attention of the government to solve some very serious, deep-seated problems with society,” Chan Kin-man (陳健民), an organizer of the pro-democracy movement Occupy Central with Love and Peace, said in an interview.

“Without a fair system, the election system, I don’t think we can have long-term harmony,” he said.

Packed with skyscrapers and shopping malls, Hong Kong has thrived as a trading port and service provider while China grew to become the world’s No. 2 economy.

However, that prosperity depends on an independent, Western-style legal system and civil liberties that Beijing promised to preserve through 2047.

This territory of 7 million serves as a jumping-off point for Chinese companies, many of them state-owned, to do business in global markets.

The strong reputation of its regulatory and legal systems have helped them raise billions of dollars through its stock market from foreign investors.

Business also might be hurt if Beijing’s response to the protest erodes rule of law, transparency and the freedoms that make Hong Kong a global center, Delta Economics vice president Tony Nash said.

“It is that infrastructure that makes Hong Kong exceptional,” he said.

Tens of thousands of protesters have camped out in shopping and business districts for nearly a week.

A two-day holiday on Wednesday and yesterday brought more residents into the streets to show solidarity with younger protesters.

Some schools and businesses have closed, but demonstrators cleared lanes for emergency vehicles to get through, cleaned up and sorted rubbish for recycling and avoided rowdy behavior.

The stock market benchmark, the Hang Seng index, has tumbled more than 9 percent since hitting a six-month peak last month.

Banks closed 44 branches due to the protests, according to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

It issued a statement assuring investors financial markets were operating normally.

“Business and investors are increasingly building in higher operational risks, fearing that future protests could escalate and turn more frequent,” Citigroup economist Adrienne Lui (雷智顏) said in a report.

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