Economists see steady growth, but remain mixed on their outlook for the health of different segments of the US economy.
Investments by businesses and government, as well as international trade activity, will grow at a faster rate than previously forecast, according to a survey released yesterday by the National Association for Business Economics.
However, consumer spending and investments in homes will be lower than previously predicted due to the US’ lagging wage growth and trouble obtaining loans.
The predictions come in a quarterly survey of 46 forecasters that was conducted from Aug. 25 to Sept. 9.
Following an unusually high degree of volatility in the first half of the year, the group expects the pace of economic growth to be steady, with GDP forecast to grow at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3 percent in the third and fourth quarters of this year and throughout next year.
Other predictions include:
‧ An average monthly gain of 228,000 nonfarm jobs this year, up from a forecast of 209,000 in the association’s last survey in June. Next year, the pace of job growth could slow to 211,000 a month.
‧ Workers’ pay could also increase, with salaries estimated to grow 2.8 percent this year, up from the 2 percent prediction in June. For next year, wages are now forecast to grow 2.6 percent.
‧ Industrial production should continue to pick up from the 2.9 percent growth recorded last year. Economists now estimate that it will be 4 percent for this year and 3.6 percent for next year.
‧ New home construction will not be as rosy. Last year saw an 11.9 percent increase in new home construction. In March, the economists were predicting 9 percent growth this year. By June, that was down to 3.8 percent and now stands at a paltry 2.7 percent increase. The economists think it will rebound next year to 9.2 percent growth.
‧ Predictions for home price growth remain unchanged at 5 percent this year and 4 percent next year.
‧ Nearly two-thirds of the economists surveyed say the biggest challenge to the housing market is the inability of prospective buyers to qualify for a mortgage. One quarter said the decline was caused by Americans today preferring to rent rather than own.
Stephen Garrett, a 27-year-old graduate student, always thought he would study in China, but first the country’s restrictive COVID-19 policies made it nearly impossible and now he has other concerns. The cost is one deterrent, but Garrett is more worried about restrictions on academic freedom and the personal risk of being stranded in China. He is not alone. Only about 700 American students are studying at Chinese universities, down from a peak of nearly 25,000 a decade ago, while there are nearly 300,000 Chinese students at US schools. Some young Americans are discouraged from investing their time in China by what they see
MAJOR DROP: CEO Tim Cook, who is visiting Hanoi, pledged the firm was committed to Vietnam after its smartphone shipments declined 9.6% annually in the first quarter Apple Inc yesterday said it would increase spending on suppliers in Vietnam, a key production hub, as CEO Tim Cook arrived in the country for a two-day visit. The iPhone maker announced the news in a statement on its Web site, but gave no details of how much it would spend or where the money would go. Cook is expected to meet programmers, content creators and students during his visit, online newspaper VnExpress reported. The visit comes as US President Joe Biden’s administration seeks to ramp up Vietnam’s role in the global tech supply chain to reduce the US’ dependence on China. Images on
New apartments in Taiwan’s major cities are getting smaller, while old apartments are increasingly occupied by older people, many of whom live alone, government data showed. The phenomenon has to do with sharpening unaffordable property prices and an aging population, property brokers said. Apartments with one bedroom that are two years old or older have gained a noticeable presence in the nation’s six special municipalities as well as Hsinchu county and city in the past five years, Evertrust Rehouse Co (永慶房產集團) found, citing data from the government’s real-price transaction platform. In Taipei, apartments with one bedroom accounted for 19 percent of deals last
US CONSCULTANT: The US Department of Commerce’s Ursula Burns is a rarely seen US government consultant to be put forward to sit on the board, nominated as an independent director Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, yesterday nominated 10 candidates for its new board of directors, including Ursula Burns from the US Department of Commerce. It is rare that TSMC has nominated a US government consultant to sit on its board. Burns was nominated as one of seven independent directors. She is vice chair of the department’s Advisory Council on Supply Chain Competitiveness. Burns is to stand for election at TSMC’s annual shareholders’ meeting on June 4 along with the rest of the candidates. TSMC chairman Mark Liu (劉德音) was not on the list after in December last