European jet manufacturer Airbus is raising its long-term forecast for new aircraft demand by more than 7 percent, based on expected orders of smaller, more fuel-efficient airplanes and burgeoning travel in Asia.
Airbus’ top salesman, John Leahy, said on Wednesday that air traffic is expected to grow 4.7 percent annually over the next 20 years.
That would require 31,400 new passenger and freighter aircraft, of which 12,400 would replace existing planes with more efficient ones. The forecast is an increase from last year’s, in which Airbus predicted 29,220 aircraft would need to be built through to 2033.
Airbus values the new aircraft needs at US$4.6 billion. Single-aisle aircraft are expected to account for 70 percent of the new production, while 9,300 wide-body aircraft are thought to be needed.
“Demand is shifting towards the A320 and A321, but it is also shifting out of single-aisle into wide-body,” Leahy said.
“If you are getting close to filling up any plane like the A321 you are spilling traffic,” he added.
By 2033, the global fleet is to double to 37,500, Airbus predicts.
The forecast is slightly lower than that of Airbus’ primary rival, Boeing. In July, the US jetmaker predicted deliveries of 36,770 new aircraft over the next 20 years.
The two companies’ forecasts diverge most sharply in the market for very large aircraft, where Airbus has staked out a claim with its A380 super-jumbo 550-seater.
Airbus sees the market for the A380 and Boeing’s rival 747 at 1,500 aircraft over the next 20 years, down from its forecast of 1,700 last year.
Rival Boeing predicts tat airlines are likely to need less than half that, or 620 very large aircraft over that time frame.
Yesterday, Airbus was to stage the first flight of its A320neo, a revamped, more fuel-efficient version of its best-selling single-aisle family of jets.
Leahy told reporters that Airbus is “seriously considering” ramping up production of its wide-body twin-engine jets, the A350 XWB and the A330neo.
Airbus expects to book more than 1,300 orders this year, Leahy said, near the record-setting 1,619 orders it booked last year.
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