The output of the global semiconductor industry is estimated to expand by 3.1 percent next year to US$336.3 billion from this year, driven by Apple Watch and other new applications for the Internet of Things (IoT), Taipei-based market researcher Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC, 產業情報研究所) said yesterday.
Meanwhile, Taiwan's semiconductor industry will still perform better than the overall global semiconductor industry next year, supported by a continued demand for low and middle-end smartphones and an emerging demand for smart handheld devices and wearables, MIC said.
The output of Taiwan's semiconductor industry will grow by an annual rate of 6 percent to NT$2.21 trillion (US$73.4 billion) next year from the NT$2.089 trillion estimated for this year, the research house said in a statement, following an industry forum held in Taipei earlier yesterday.
MIC said the global semiconductor industry is estimated to see its output increase 6.7 percent to US$326.2 billion and Taiwanese firms will report 16 percent growth in output to NT$2.09 trillion this year.
MIC's forecasts have echoed many industry participants in the three-day Semicon Taiwan expo from Sept. 3 to Sept. 5. Analysts at CIMB Securities Ltd, for instance, are viewing the emerging IOT as the engine to fuel the semiconductor industry's growth in the next decade.
“IoT will stimulate demand. While we are unable to quantify demand, as IoT is still finding its path, it will drive growth for the foundry, OSAT [outsourced assembly and test], memory and IC design sectors,” Taiwan research head of the Hong Kong-based brokerage Eric Lin (林育名) wrote in a client note on Thursday last week.
Lin said the rise of IoT would lead foundry operators toward a sellers’ market with resilient wafer prices, while chip packagers would have to upgrade technology to support the IoT ecosystem and chip designers must migrate toward FinFET (fin field-effect transistor) architecture for better-performance application processors.
Diversified demands will also help improve the memory segment of the industry, following near-term headwinds such as inventory adjustment and industry consolidation, he added.
A closer look at the output breakdown of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry indicates that the chip manufacturing segment will see total output grow 6.57 percent to NT$1.22 billion from the NT$1.16 billion estimated for this year, an increase of 19 percent from last year.
Output of the chip packaging sector will reach NT$431 billion next year, up 6 percent from the NT$407 billion forecast for this year, while that of chip designers will expand to NT$559 billion from this year's estimate of NT$527.4 billion, MIC said in the statement.
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